Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Cubs Win at Home as Underdogs)

MLB picks, best bets and wagers for every game on the Wednesday, May 8.
May 7, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch (29) celebrates with
May 7, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch (29) celebrates with / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

As is custom on Wednesday during baseball season, we have day baseball!

We have plenty of action starting during the afternoon, including the Cubs and Padres meeting again after the Cubbies walked it off courtesy of a Michael Bush home run in the bottom of the ninth on Tuesday night. Can the Cubs do it again at Wrigley Field?

We got you covered with our pick for EVERY game on Wednesday below!

Angels vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Angels (+115)

The Angels won 9-0 on Tuesday and I like the visitors to keep it going on Wednesday afternoon due to its ability to hit in spite of not having Mike Trout in the lineup. The Angels are 12th in OPS since the beginning of May and are 12th in OPS against lefties, which is impactful when facing Pirates starter Martin Perez.

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-165)

Chris Bassitt can’t be trusted with his career high walk rate (11%) leading to a 5.45 ERA (5.55 xERA). This should be exploited against a Phillies lineup that is now second in the big leagues in OPS. 

Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tigers (+115)

I”m not sure I see a big enough gap to lay a price on the Guardians. 

Tanner Bibee has been erratic all season with an ERA in the 4’s supported by a similar xERA while the Tigers will lean on second year pro Reese Olson, who has a 2.70 ERA with a mid 3’s xERA generated by allowing ground ball contact.

 Mets vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mets (+145)

The Cards are struggling, losers of four straight, and it won’t get any better on Wednesday. 

Despite giving the ball to Sonny Gray (0.89 ERA in five starts), the offense can’t be trusted against left handed pitching, hitting a big league worst .187. 

I’ll trust the better team in the Mets with a southpaw in Jose Quintana on the mound. 

Brewers vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-135)

Milwaukee crushes righties, hitting .265 with the second best OPS (.770), but I’m going to trust the Royals at home with Brady Singer. 

Singer is striking out a career best 26% strikeouts and allowing a career low hard hit rate of 36%. I believe he can mitigate the damage and the Royals above average offense can make noise against Joe Ross of the Brewers, who has a 4.64 ERA and striking out only 19% of batters he’s facing.

Padres vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (+105)

This is an elite pitching matchup between Hayden Wesneski (0.54 ERA in four games and two starts) against Dylan Cease (2.54 ERA), but I’m going to side with the home underdog. 

While Cease has the higher ceiling, Wesneski is showing pinpoint control with a 87th percentile walk rate and 94th percentile pitch run movement. 

Further, the Cubs offense should thrive at home, where the team is 13-5 on the year. The team is second in the bigs in OPS at home this season (.792).

Marlins vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-275)

I’m not interested in fading the Dodgers with an offense as poor as the Marlins, who are 29th in OPS. 

Rangers vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+105)

Texas can’t hit lefties, 26th in OPS against southpaws, which makes it tough to trust the team on the road against Oakland, who has a capable arm on the mound in JP Sears, who is in the 95th percentile in terms of breaking ball pitch run value.

Diamondbacks vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-120)

I’ll take the road favorite Diamondbacks with Jordan Montgomery on the mound. 

A lefty, Montgomery should have plenty of success against a Reds team that is bottom five in OPS against left handed pitching. 

Orioles vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Nationals (+145)

Can the Nats spark an upset on Wednesday? The team’s offense has hovered around league average all season and will get a chance to hand some regression to Kyle Bradish, who has a 1.93 ERA, but has an xERA of 3.23. 

I’ll take a shot with left handed prospect Mitchell Parker making his fifth career start and showcasing some serious arm talent (79th percentile chase percentage).

White Sox vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (-240)

I can’t trust the White Sox against many teams, but definitely not with Chris Flexen on the mound, who is striking out a career low 13% of batters (8th percentile in MLB) and walking nearly 10% of batters (38th percentile).

Astros vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (+125)

The Astros hit lefties well, .270 as a unit, so I believe the team is a live underdog against the Yankees, who will start Carlos Rodon, who is allowing a ton of hard contact, 26th in hard-hit percentage.

Rangers vs. Athletics Game 2 Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+114)

I’m going to take the A’s in the second game as well as I need to see some tangible improvement from rookie Jack Leiter, who allowed seven earned runs in less than four innings.

Red Sox vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (+170)

I’ll take a stab on the Red Sox at a big price against Nick Pivetta, who has been stellar in two starts this season. While he is due to take a step back, the price is too good to pass up given some of his numbers that features a 31% strikeout rate as well as a 2% walk rate. 

Mariners vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-115)

Mariners’ starter George Kirby has good stats, but he has been one of the best in the bigs this season. 

He has a 3.76 ERA, but that’s supported by a 2.85 xERA that includes a 2.6% walk rate (last year it was a 2.5% walk rate) and a career high 26% strikeout rate. 

Kirby is a dark horse Cy Young candidate, and he’ll showcase it here.

Giants vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (-170)

Jordan Hicks is worth this price tag, more than capable to out-class this Rockies offense. 

Hicks has posted a 1.90 ERA in his first year as a starter after years in the bullpen and I can’t trust the Rockies to keep up with his blistering fastball that is 92nd in run value.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.