Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Cubs Worth a Bet as Home Underdogs)

Major League Baseball is back in full swing with a full slate on Tuesday and every team in action.

An intriguing series begins in Chicago with the Braves traveling to face the Cubs, who have been sending out Cy Young worthy pitchers all year. Can Javier Assad continue his fine pitching against an elite Braves team?

Here's our best bet for that one and the entire MLB card on Tuesday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportbsook

Mets vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-130)

Both pitchers in line to start have struggled quite a bit, but I’ll trust the home favorite Guardians against Mets’ starter Adrian Houser. 

Carrassco has struggled in his return to Cleveland (from New York) but does a good job of limiting damage with a 70th percentile ground ball rate. The Mets offense has been prodding along in May, 27th in OPS. 

Meanwhile, Houser is walking more batters than striking them out, 14% vs. 10% while getting zero batters to chase pitches (first percentile). 

I’ll trust the Guardians offense to do enough to offset midding to poor play from Carrasco. 

Padres vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+100)

The Padres can’t hit lefties, batting .210 against southpaws, so I’ll back the Reds, who are starting Andrew Abbott at home off a rest day. Meanwhile, the Padres are off a double header on Monday against a vaunted Braves team. 

Brewers vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-135)

The Brewers offense is far superior to the Marlins, and can’t be trust to hold any offense down with a pitching staff that has the second highest ERA in baseball. 

Rangers vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-175)

Philadelphia has an edge at the plate and on the mound with Ranger Suarez in line to start on Tuesday. 

Suarez has posted a 1.37 ERA while striking out the most batters of his career (26.5%). He’ll face a Rangers team that is bottom 10 in OPS against left handers.

Giants vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates (+115)

Logan Webb continues to be overrated in the betting market, who is allowing hard contact on more than 50% of at bats this season, but only has an ERA of 3.03. He has a strikeout rate that’s at a career low 18% and his xERA of 4.87. 

I can’t trust him as a road favorite. 

Twins vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-185)

There’s a big edge for the Twins in this one as the team faces Patrick Corbin (5.59 ERA), one of the worst pitchers in the big leagues. 

Minnesota is hitting .271 against southpaws and have a reliable arm in Joe Ryan on the mound (3.57 ERA).

Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (+120)

I figure this game as more of a coin flip with two solid pitchers on the mound in Red Sox starter Cooper Criswell and Rays starter Zack Littell. 

I simply don’t see much difference between either team, but the Red Sox bolster a top five bullpen while the Rays are bottom half of the league in pitching staff ERA. 

Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (+135)

Seattle will hand the ball to Byran Woo, who is in line to make his third start of the year. 

The promising right hander has looked the part in limited action this season, allowing one earned run in more than nine innings of work, and the team has a top 10 bullpen behind him. 

White Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-180)

The White Sox can’t hit lefties, the team is the worst hitting lineup against southpaws at .196 on the year, so this matchup figures to favor Yusei Kikuchi quite a bit, who is enjoying one of his best years in the big leagues (2.60 ERA).

Tigers vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-105)

The Royals continue to be undervalued and the market can’t catch up. The team is 19-8 at home this season with a far better offense. 

Braves vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (+105)

I’ll take the Cubbies as home underdogs with one of the best pitchers in the bigs this season. 

Javier Assad has been a pleasant surprise all year, ranking in the 100th percentile (!) in pitching run value, mainly due to a nasty fastball. 

He is elite at generating soft contact en route to his 1.49 ERA, and I believe he has an edge at home with the team playing at home in a windy Wrigley Field.

Orioles vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-145)

I’ll fade Lance Lynn yet again with a potent Orioles lineup that is elite at getting runners on base. 

Lynn is walking nearly 10% of batters this season, and won’t be able to avoid Orioles sluggers that can generate hard contact. The veteran is in the 17th percentile in terms of barrel percentage this season.

Angels vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-220)

Houston should be able to knock around Griffin Canning, who has been blasted by hard contact all year, in the 30th percentile. Further, he has an xBA in the 19th percentile, which figures to be big trouble against a top five hitting lineup in Houston. 

Rockies vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+115)

Two poor teams meet in Oakland, and I don’t see much difference between either team, leading me to taking the underdog Rockies. 

Colorado is hitting .246 as a unit while Oakland checks in at .220 as a group. 

With variance on the A’s side, starting Aaron Brooks for the second time this season, I’ll buy into it and take the Rockies. 

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (+130)

Brandon Pfaadt is due for some positive regression, he has an xERA of 3.07 which far surpasses his 4.17 ERA. He is elite at avoiding walks, 88th percentile, and has done a good job of avoiding hard contact, both which is important against the best lineup in baseball. 

I’ll buy the underdog Diamondbacks against Gavin Stone and the Dodgers, as the 25-year-old is failing to find his punch out pitch, striking out only 15% of batters. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.