Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Diamondbacks, Mariners Live Underdogs Monday)
By Reed Wallach
Teams are on the move across Major League Baseball, and we are eyeing hte board for some wagers.
Two high leverage series start out west with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks meeting in Arizona in a rematch from last year's NLDS while the Braves travel to Seattle to take on the surging Mariners.
We have bets on both of those games as well as each game on the Monday MLB slate!
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Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick
Pick: Orioles (-130)
Grayson Rodriguez has tantalizing upside, but has been allowing hard contact at an alarming rate this season (fifth percentile), but I believe his 94th percentile offspeed run value can be impactful in a home game against the Yankees.
Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick
Pick: Nationals (+125)
The 6-23 Marlins shouldn’t be favored against any team at such a price. While the Nationals pitching staff leaves a ton to be desired, the team has a far better offense this season, closer to big league average in OPS against the 29th ranked Marlins lineup.
Cardinals vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tigers (-106)
Detroit has the pitching staff to withstand what might be a low scoring affair, both teams are bottom five in OPS this season, and I’ll take them at home despite each team starting a veteran with an ERA over 5.00.
Steven Matz has struggled all year with a 5.55 ERA and Kenta Maeda of the Tigers’ ERA sits at 5.96.
Royals vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick
Pick: Royals (+125)
It’s tough to trust Yariel Rodriguez just yet after three big league starts. The surface level numbers seem solid, sitting at a 3.86 ERA with a 5.05 xERA, but he is walking nearly 10% of batters and isn’t inducing a ton of chases (28%). I believe the Royals complete lineup can generate answers as considerable underdogs.
Cubs vs. Mets Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mets (-130)
Two veteran pitchers toe the rubber in Luis Severino of the Mets (2.67 ERA) and Jameson Taillon (1.69 ERA), but its the bullpen that leads me to backing New York at home in the series opener.
Chicago has a bottom 10 ERA out of the bullpen while the Mets rank eighth.
Twins vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick
Pick: Twins (-165)
Minnesota is second in batting average against left handed pitchers, I expect the team can handle Garrett Crochet and the lowly White Sox, who have the worst OPS in Major League Baseball.
Rays vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick
Pick: Rays (-105)
I’ll take Tampa Bay as small underdogs with Ryan Pepiot’s high strikeout rate playing a factor. He is punching out a career best 28% of batters while generating an 88th percentile whiff percentage.
Phillies vs. Angels Prediction and Pick
Pick: Angels (+120)
I’ll take a flier on the Angels with Griffin Canning hopefully turning a better outing after struggling in his first five starts (7.50 ERA). He has an xERA of 4.89 and does a good job of limiting walks (72nd percentile).
Meanwhile, the Angels are a league average offense against left handing pitching, and will face Cristopher Sanchez on Monday, who is walking 10% of the batters he faces (bottom 30 percentile).
Pirates vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pirates (-135)
Pittsburgh is 12th in the big leagues at hitting left handed pitching, so I expect a quick start from the team in Oakland against prospect Joe Boyle (7.06 ERA), who can’t generate many strikeouts.
Braves vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mariners (+125)
In possibly the game of the day, the Mariners look to continue its recent run of form against the juggernaut Braves. The team will lean on Bryce Miller to slow down the Braves potent lineup, and I like Seattle at home to do just that.
Max Fried has shown mixed control after an injury riddled 2023, posting a 4.97 ERA thus far, and a lot of his positive sentiment is coming from a complete game shutout against the worst team in baseball Marlins. Meanwhile, Miller is striking out more than 26% of batter.
I believe in the hitter friendly Safeco Field, the Mariners can win a low scoring affair.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick
Pick: Diamondbacks (+120)
The Diamondbacks are a live underdog on Monday against James Paxton and the Dodgers.
LA will start James Paxton, who is looking ot capture his form in 2024. While the surface level numbers look good, he has a 2.61 ERA, he has an xERA of 5.33 while walking more than 19% of batters he’s facing.
That’s impactful against Arizona, who is tops in OPS against southpaws this season.
Arizona has some pitching questions of its own with Tommy Henry struggling all season with a 5.55 ERA, but I’ll jump at this price given the matchup on the other side.
Reds vs. Padres Prediction and Pick
Pick: Padres (-110)
The Padres rank eighth in on-base percentage and the Reds are 23rd. These two teams are rated quite similarly overall, but I’ll trust the home team in a game being lined as a coin flip.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.