Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Keep Betting Royals at Home)

Wednesday means day baseball, but the intrigue continues through the night on this slate of Major League Baseball.

The Royals continue to be one of the brightest stories in Major League Baseball, and get a chance to keep up in the AL Central at the expense of a struggling Tigers team.

I'm betting this game with information below, but here's my thoughts on every baseball game on Wednesday.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Twins vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-135)

Minnesota has a serious advantage at the dish, the Nats are bottom three in OPS in the month of May, but I also fancy the pitching edge for the Twins. Simeon Woods Richardson has thrived in his first extended run in the big leagues, posting a 2.97 ERA with an incredibly low 4.8% walk percentage. 

Mets vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-125)

I’ll grab Cleveland at a cheap price against the Mets, who are top 10 in OPS against southpaws and face one in the soft tossing Jose Quintana. 

Orioles vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-140)

The Orioles are the far superior team, and John Means of the O’s draws a great matchup against a Cardinals lineup that is hitting .203 against lefties. 

Angels vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-185)

I’ll trust Houston at home, who is fourth in OPS against lefties, against Tyler Anderson, who has been among the luckiest pitchers in baseball. He has an ERA of 2.72 with an xERA of 4.83.

Tigers vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (+100)

Tarik Skubal is playing at a Cy Young level, but I’m not trusting the Tigers on the road against the Royals, who are a far superior lineup with a capable arm in left hander Cole Ragans set to start.

Count on the Royals to keep it rolling at home, where the team is 20-8, and fresh off a Bobby Witt Jr. two home run effort.

Brewers vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+115)

I’ll trust Jesus Luzardo to pull a mild upset against the Brewers. The Marlins offense leaves some to be desired, but Luzardo is due some better fortune on the mound, posting an xERA far lower than his 5.02, sitting at 4.20. 

Rangers vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rangers (+120)

Taijuan Walker is a prime regression candidate with diminishing velocity, down over one mile per hour this season vs. last. He has an xERA of 6.30, far higher than his 4.93 ERA with the lowest strikeout percentage since 2018. 

I’ll back Texas as a road underdog.

Giants vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates (-120)

This has been a disastrous start to the year for NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, who missed all of spring training awaiting a contract. He signed late in the process with the Giants, but struggled through three starts, posting an 11.57 ERA before hitting the injured list for a month. 

All that being said, I can’t trust him in his first start back on the road. Give me the Pirates. 

Padres vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+105)

Nick Martinez has been used as both an innings eater and a starter this season for the Reds, and I like him to lead Cincinnati over his former team, the Padres. 

Martinez has showcased pinpoint accuracy by walking only three batters, huge against a Padres team that is top five in walk rate. 

I’ll take the home underdog on Wednesday.

Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (-130)

Ryan Pepiot looked the part of a back-end rotation piece for the Rays before hitting the IL due to a bruised leg. He makes his return on Wednesday against the Red Sox and I like Tampa Bay as small favorites. 

Pepiot has struck out 29% of batters (84th percentile) with a nasty fastball (95th percentile on run value) and should be getting even better results. He has an ERA of 3.68 with an xERA of 2.94 with an xBA of .198. 

We’re getting a great price on Tampa Bay at this number.

Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-140)

New York has the talent advantage in this one, but the real edge lies on the mound with Nestor Cortes set to start against the Mariners. 

The lefty has an ERA of 3.56, perfectly fine, but his numbers are set to improve with an xERA of 2.70 with a walk rate below 5%. I believe he gets it started on Wednesday against the Mariners, who are bottom 10 in on-base percentage against left handers. 

White Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+180)

The White Sox are a tough team to back given its dismal record of 14-34, but what makes us confident in the 21-24 Blue Jays, who are starting the ineffective Chris Bassitt? 

Bassitt has lost control of his pitch arsenal, walking nearly 11% of batters with an ERA above 5.00. I'll take my shot with the White Sox as big road underdogs.

Braves vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (+115)

I’ll buy low on Justin Steele on Wednesday given the underlying metrics that indicate he has seen an uptick in his velocity despite some concerning numbers like a 5.21 ERA. Steele has an xERA of 3.76 and is getting plenty of chases on his pitches (84th percentile). 

Max Fried has been solid after an injury-riddled 2023, but his strikeout rate has diminished, punching out a career low 19% of batters.

Rockies vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+115)

The Rockies send out Austin Gomber, a left hander on Wednesday, who has a favorable matchup against the Oakland offense that is hitting only .208 against left handed pitching.

I’ll grab the underdog price on the Rockies.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (+225)

I’ll take a flier on Arizona against the vaunted Dodgers on Wednesday. 

Tyler Glasnow figures to be in the NL Cy Young discussion all season, but the D-Backs don’t chase pitches and get on base at a high clip, top 10 in both strikeouts and walks. Can the team manufacture enough runs to hang tough with LA and pull a big upset? 

I believe this team is worthy of a sprinkle on the moneyline.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.