Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Trust Freddy Peralta, Brewers on Tuesday)

After a travel day Monday, and some rainouts, we have a full slate on Tuesday across Major League Baseball. 

All eyes will be on Craig Counsell’s return to Milwaukee as he takes his Cubs to visit the Brewers in a reignited rivalry after the manager left for Wrigley Field this past offseason. I’m banking on flame throwing Freddy Peralta to welcome back his former manager with a strong showing. 

Here’s how I’m betting that game as well as every game on the Tuesday, May 28th MLB slate. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction and Pick Game 1

Pick: Dodgers (-205)

Tyler Glasnow is striking out one of every three batters he sees this season, while Mets’ starter is walking north of 12% of batters he has faced in two starts this season. 

I need to back the Dodgers with Glasnow on the mound to snap its five game losing streak, the teams longest since 2019. 

Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Red Sox (+145)

I don’t believe this is the mismatch the line would indicate. Grayson Rodriguez has shown a nasty offspeed pitch (90th percentile in terms of run value), but he is walking more than 10% of batters with an xERA nearly one run higher than his actual (3.20 vs. 3.97). 

I’ll back the Red Sox at plus money.

Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-130)

The Cardinals are the worst hitting team against left handed pitching (.203), making the club an auto fade against any capable southpaw, which the Reds are slated to start in Andrew Abbott (2.68 ERA). 

Pirates vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Pirates (+135)

In a battle of two promising young pitchers, I’ll fade the AL Cy Young favorite Skubal, who has started to show some signs of vulnerability. He has struggled to avoid contact this month, seeing his ERA spike from 2.05 to 3.09 this month compared to April. 

I’ll back rookie Jared Jones to continue his fine play, 3.05 ERA, and limit a mediocre Tigers lineup.

Athletics vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (-165)

Zack Littell has been stellar all year, posting 3.42 ERA with an xERA of 3.25. He is striking out far more batters than last season, 23.6% compared to 19.5% and has showcased pinpoint control, a sub-4% walk rate. 

Littell should have little issue navigating the Athletics’ lineup. 

Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction and Pick Game 2

Pick: Dodgers (-150)

The Dodgers are hitting .271 against left handed pitching this season and fourth in OPS (.774), making the team justified favorites against Mets starter Jose Quintana. 

Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-250)

The Nationals struggle against southpaws, 27th in OPS against left handed pitching, making Max Fried worthy of this lofty price tag with a loaded Braves lineup supporting him, even without Ronald Acuna Jr. 

Royals vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-125)

In a battle of two AL Central contenders, the Royals get the nod again as small road favorites. 

Cole Ragans continues to thrust himself into the Cy Young conversation with his nasty arsenal of pitches that is striking you nearly 30% of batters. I believe he has the goods to hold off this Twins lineup and for the Royals to score a massive division victory. 

Blue Jays vs White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+170)

The White Sox are amongst the worst in the big leagues, but Kevin Gausman continues to be getting lined on reputation and not production. 

The former Cy Young contender has an ERA of 4.47 this season with his lowest strikeout rate since his mid-career renaissance in 2019. He is lacking movement on his pitches (10th percentile in terms of run value) and is ripe to be blown up by even a meager lineup like Chicago. 

Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-160)

The Brewers have the edge at the plate and on the mound on Tuesday. 

Freddy Peralta draws the start against rookie Ben Brown of the Cubs, and Peralta has shown he has this Cubs lineup covered. While he has a 3.50 ERA in 16 appearances against the Cubs dating back to 2019, he has owned the team of late. 

Peralta has allowed 14 hits in his last five starts against the Cubs dating back to 2022  while allowing only 11 earned runs. Further, he has struck out 31 batters. 

Milwaukee is supporting Peralta with a top five lineup in terms of OPS, which outpaces the Cubs, who are 22nd in the same metric.

Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (-120)

This is a pure fade of Rangers’ starter Dane Dunning, who has struggled all season, but is somewhat lucky. 

Dunning has walked a career high 10% of batters as he continues to refine his pitch arsenal, striking out a career best 27.8% of batters. He is far more erratic with his increased focus on striking batters out, which has led to a ton more runners on the basepaths. In turn, the Rangers’ starter has an ERA of 4.43, supported by an xERA of 5.39. 

I’ll back Arizona as small road favorites in a World Series rematch. 

Guardians vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+120)

I’ll back Colorado as home underdogs on Tuesday, who are slated to start Ryan Feltner. 

Feltner has thrived at Coors Field relative to away from it. He has an ERA of 3.94 at home in three starts while his ERA spies to 5.54 on the road in seven starts. While Coors Field is typically a tough place for a pitcher to thrive, Feltner has done far better at his home field. 

Yankees vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Yankees (-180)

The Angels offense has been resilient without Mike Trout, eight in OPS in the month of May, but that still falls short of the Yankees, who are tops in that same metric. 

The talent gap is too big to ignore, I’ll take the road favorite. 

Marlins vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+110)

The Padres have pronounced struggles against left handed pitching, 25th in OPS against southpaws and hitting only .222. 

Enter: Jesus Luzardo, an elite strikeout pitcher, who ranks in the 89th percentile in terms of whiff percentage. 

I’ll back Miami as road underdogs. 

Astros vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-135)

Luis Castillo has pitched like an All-Star this season, posting a 3.31 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate. He has been on the wrong end of some hard contact, but with a pitch arsenal that ranks in the 82nd percentile in terms of run value, I’m happy to back him at a cheap price at home. 

Phillies vs. Giants Prediction and Pick

Pick: Giants (+170)

I believe the market is overrating Zack Wheeler. The favorite to win the Cy Young, we haven’t seen Wheeler’s best stuff of late as his walk rate has driven to its highest since his rookie campaign at 7.7%. He has avoided any blow ups, but his inability to keep runners on the basepaths can lead to an abbreviated outing and more variance.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.