MLB Underdog of the Day (Cubs End Eric Lauer's Stretch of Goofy Luck)

There's a pitcher I've been fading for weeks, as his underlying numbers are significantly worse than his box score statistics. The regression monster is coming soon for Eric Lauer, and today is the perfect day for the Chicago Cubs to wreck havoc on him and the Milwaukee Brewers.

I've been waiting for the perfect moment to fade Lauer as part of the MLB Underdog of the Day. Well, that moment is here. Milwaukee is on a tailspin out of the playoffs, and Adrian Sampson hopes to deliver a knockout blow as we approach the final month of the regular season.

Let's not waste any time. We don't want sportsbooks to lighten the odds, after all. Using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, here is the MLB Underdog of the Day:

Cubs vs Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

Eric Lauer has never done anything to me personally, but I cannot stand him. He's got a 2.16 ERA in August, continuing to limit damage despite horrific advanced metrics. Lauer doesn't deserve the strong performances he's accumulating. Penance is coming, and coming quickly, Eric.

Just look at Lauer's expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) from his last seven starts:

• 8/22 @ LAD: 5.28

• 8/17 vs LAD: 4.29

• 8/12 @ STL: 4.41

• 8/05 vs CIN: 4.94

• 7/30 @ BOS: 5.08

• 7/24 vs COL: 6.52

• 7/16 @ SFG: 5.78

Those are terrible numbers. Marco Gonzales has MLB's worst expected FIP at 4.88, so Lauer is consistently worse than MLB's worst starter. He issued multiple walks in each of those seven outings, and it's only a matter of time before things implode and Lauer gets rushed out of a game early.

The Chicago Cubs won four of their last five contests as road underdogs and certainly have a pitching advantage today. Adrian Sampson is coming off a rough outing against St. Louis, but I'm willing to forgive that performance given the Cardinals have the best lineup in baseball right now.

Sampson had an expected FIP below 3.87 in three of his last four outings prior to the Cardinals game, and I think he'll bounce back against a Brewers team that's prone to disappearing. His 4-seam fastball has an opponents' expected batting average of just .124 this month. I think he'll rely on that pitch to generate weak contact and lead Chicago to a victory.

Today is the day Lauer finally unravels. Regression monster, we welcome you with open arms.

Pick: Cubs (+148)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.