MLB Underdog of the Day (Graham Ashcraft Gives Reds Tremendous Value)

Graham Ashcraft has been remarkable for Cincinnati as they take on the Cardinals as big underdogs today
Graham Ashcraft has been remarkable for Cincinnati as they take on the Cardinals as big underdogs today / Dylan Buell/GettyImages

Do you like stud pitchers? What about stud pitchers at plus money against sputtering lineups? I hope you said yes to those questions, because I've got a doozy of an underdog for you on today's loaded 15-game MLB slate.

Using the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, let's check out my favorite MLB underdog of the day and back a stud pitcher at plus money against a sputtering lineup:

Reds vs Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Reds +1.5 (-130)
  • Cardinals -1.5 (+110)


  • Reds: +175
  • Cardinals: -190


  • 8.5 (Over +100/ Under -120)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

24-year-old Graham Ashcraft will make his fifth career start for Cincinnati today and he's been nothing short of sensational through the first four. He has a 1.14 ERA through 23.2 innings, and hasn't allowed more than four hits in a single outing. In his last three starts spanning 19.1 innings, he's given up just a single run.

The Reds have won all four of those starts, and a $100 bettor on the Cincy moneyline would be up $535. He's in a great spot to continue his stellar play against a Cardinals lineup that's suddenly mediocre.

St. Louis is averaging just 2.6 runs per contest in their last five games and over the last two weeks, the Cardinals rank 27th in OPS. They'll start Dakota Hudson today, who has been flirting with disaster all year. The 27-year-old righty has a 4-2 record and 2.76 ERA, but his underlying metrics imply the regression monster is coming at any moment.

Hudson has an expected ERA of 4.61, implying he's been among the luckiest pitchers in baseball. His MLB Statcast Pitching Profile paints a picture of a bad starter, not an elite one:

Compare that to Ashcraft's Statcast Pitching Profile and you tell me who should be favored:

The Reds rank 10th in OPS over the last two weeks and have the pitching advantage. At the very least, they have no business being +176 underdogs. Roll with Ashcraft to continue his stellar rookie campaign. I have a feeling that by this time next week, no one will be sleeping on the Reds' young phenom like they are now.

Pick: Reds (+176)

Blue Jays vs Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)
  • Tigers +1.5 (-145)


  • Blue Jays: -126
  • Tigers: +116


  • 8 (Over -115 / Under -105)

Bonus MLB Underdog Pick Today

I think I'm contractually obligated at this point to back Tarik Skubal every week. He's been my favorite pitcher in MLB this season and shows no signs of slowing up.

Skubal has shut out four of his last six opponents and has a ridiculous 1.70 ERA in six home starts. The Tigers are 5-1 in his last six outings and 6-3 in their last nine as a home underdog. It does not matter who he plays, Skubal will give Detroit a chance to win every single time he's on the mound.

Ross Stripling was impressive against Kansas City in his last start but is in the 31st percentile in barrel percentage, so he can be squared up and hit hard. Toronto had lost three straight Stripling starts before they had the good fortunate of facing the dumpster-fire we call the Royals organization, so I'm not putting too much stock into his most recent performance.

I'll keep backing Skubal at plus odds until oddsmakers stop making him an underdog. This is one of the elite pitchers in MLB, it's time to start treating him like it.

I love the value we're getting on these underdogs at WynnBET. I'd recommend playing them both individually, but if you're feeling daring on this beautiful Sunday then a two-team parlay pays out +475. That's $118.68 on a $25 bet, and I can think of far worse investments with $25.

Best of luck and let's enjoy these slept-on pitchers before the rest of the betting world wakes up.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.