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MLB Underdog of the Day (Sean Manaea Let the Dogs Out in Twins-Padres)

By Joe Summers

Sean Manaea has a 6.16 ERA this month ahead of today's contest with the Twins
Sean Manaea has a 6.16 ERA this month ahead of today's contest with the Twins / Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
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Who let the dogs out? Sean Manaea did, and now they're barking along to the song and waking kids up all around the neighborhood.

Manaea is in a terrible stretch, amassing a 6.16 ERA this month and failing to completing the fourth inning in two of his last four starts. He's given up at least one home run in every July outing while the San Diego Padres' lineup is floundering, giving Minnesota great value in today's matchup.

The Minnesota Twins start Dylan Bundy, whose underlying metrics imply has been better than his recent output indicates.

Put two-and-two together and what do you have? Today's MLB Underdog of the Day! Odds, of course, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Twins vs Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Twins +1.5 (-160)
  • Padres -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline:

  • Twins: +127
  • Padres: -137

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

Something is wrong with Sean Manaea. I don't know if he's hurt or just bad, but the guy is struggling in a massive way. His command is off, he's giving up hard contact at a horrible rate, and he just surrendered nine runs to the worst lineup in MLB, the Tigers.

Minnesota's lineup is decidedly not the worst in MLB, with the sixth-best OPS against left-handed pitchers this month. I expect the Twins to score early and often, especially with Cleveland and Chicago hot on their trail in the AL Central race.

Dylan Bundy scares me, yes, absolutely. But his 3.81 expected ERA implies he's been extremely unlucky to amass a 5.02 actual ERA, and Minnesota has wins in three of his last four starts.

San Diego is a pathetic 4-9 in its last 13 as a home favorite and with Manaea on the mound, I'm happy to back what I believe is the better team in the Twins.

Pick: Twins (+127)

If you want a shot at a massive cash, don't forget that Josh Yourish likes the over in this game too. The over is 7-1-2 in Bundy's last 10 starts and 11-3-1 in Manaea's last 15. Parlaying the over and Twins moneyline gets you odds of +324 at WynnBET, which sounds pretty delightful if you ask me.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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