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MLB Underdog of the Day (Back Reds to Stay Hot over Red Sox at Fenway)

By Matt De Saro

After a rough April, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Hunter Greene now has a 3.43 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 23.2 IP over his last four starts.
After a rough April, Cincinnati Reds pitcher Hunter Greene now has a 3.43 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 23.2 IP over his last four starts. / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
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The Cincinnati Reds continue to play very well relative to their first month of action. The Reds went from a 3-22 team to a somewhat respectable 17-31 in less than a month. They are still a terrible team, but one that is at least playing competitive baseball. Heck, they even won five of their last six games.

It’s a shocking development after Cincy tied for the worst record in history over their first 25 games. They managed to take Game 1 of their current series last night 2-1 over the Boston Red Sox. Boston is another disappointing team, entering Wednesday at 23-27; fourth in the AL East. 

My question is why are the Red Sox almost 2/1 favorites tonight against a team that's only slightly worse right now? This is not a good team and I don’t see a world where it makes sense to bet on them at -195. 

Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Reds at Red Sox Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Reds: +1.5 (-115)
  • Red Sox: -1.5 (-105)

Moneyline:

  • Reds: +177
  • Red Sox: -195

Total:

  • Total 8.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today: Reds +177 at Red Sox

Before I get too ahead of myself, I have to go against a soft rule I created in my brain over the last month or so. Do not bet on Hunter Greene.

I try to avoid the Reds altogether, but Greene was nearly an auto-fade for most of the year with a 2-6 record and 5.89 ERA. However, he’s actually looked pretty good in the last month. Yes, he gave up five runs and three dingers to the Cubs on Thursday, but he also had a run of three quality starts before that against the Blue Jays, Pirates, and Brewers. There is no questioning his talent, and Greene appears to be catching on to the speed of MLB. 

Greene faces off against Garrett Whitlock tonight in a battle of young guns at Fenway. The 25-year-old righty has seen his share of struggles this year but is having a much better season overall than Greene. His 5.73 ERA in May isn’t a great sign and makes me not want to trust him to win a game at these odds. 

Pick: Reds +177 to win 

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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