MLB Underdog of the Day (Bookmakers Underestimating Pablo Lopez Today vs. Adam Wainwright and Cardinals)

Miami Marlins starter Pablo Lopez.
Miami Marlins starter Pablo Lopez. / Eric Espada/GettyImages

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Miami Marlins today in the first of three games between the two this week at State Farm Stadium. The Marlins are in a spot of trouble right now and are barely hanging onto 4th place in the NL East. Now 12.5 games off the lead, their season is basically down to avoiding a 5th place finish behind Washington.

Today the Marlins have the tall task of taking down the Cardinals on their home turf. St. Louis is currently second in the NL Central, but just a single game behind the Brewers for the lead. If the Brewers lose today, a win from the Cards would put them back in a tie with Milwaukee. 

Here are the odds for this showdown from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Marlins vs.Cardinals Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Marlins: +1.5 (-180)
  • Cardinals: -1.5 (+150)


  • Marlins: +116
  • Cardinals: -126


  • Total 7.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

If you read the title of this article then you already know my pick for tonight. Risky yes, but that’s the name of the game when it’s time for underdog of the day. Predictably, the reason I like the Marlins in this spot comes down to pitching.

Pablo Lopez continues to dominate opponents this season and enters this series debut with a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 15 innings of work. I will admit that his performance in June has been shaky with a 4.56 ERA in four starts. But, Lopez bounced back on Wednesday and threw seven shutout innings against the Colorado Rockies. Lopez struck out six and walked three, but overall it was a strong showing from one of the Marlins’ best arms. 

What makes this play even tastier is how bad the Cardinals have been against Lopez over the course of his career. Since 2018, the Cardinals are hitting just .168 (7-for-37) against Lopez with no extra-base hits. Lopez struck out seven over that span with no walks. So, to recap, against this team Lopez has allowed seven singles in 37 at-bats and not one free pass. 

Now, this is all ignoring the very important fact that the Cardinals are a much better team than Miami. They also have a very good arm on the mound today in Adam Wainwright who enters this game with a 3.32 ERA in 84 innings. But, father time might be catching up at age 40, and Wainwright’s production has slowed in June.

He has a 4.68 ERA in June and has allowed four earned runs in each of his previous two games. Wainwright hasn’t earned a win since May 20 and I’m looking at another L for the veteran. 

Pick: Marlins +116

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE