MLB Underdog of the Day (Brewers Have No Answers vs. Lefties)
By Josh Yourish
Everyone knows the old saying, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Well, that is very applicable to my betting today.
My last two underdogs have been targeting lefties pitching against offenses that cannot hit lefties. I did it with Seattle’s Marco Gonzales against Cleveland, then yesterday with Justin Steele of the Cubs against Milwaukee.
So, why would I change this strategy? I don’t even have to pick a new team to fade. We’re heading right back to the NL Central for our Underdog of the Day.
Let's check out the odds below.
Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total
Best MLB Underdog Pick Today
Both the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs are hitting under .200 in their last 10 games and last night they needed 10 innings to decide things. The offense really isn’t there for either team at least in terms of stringing hits together. Though the offense is never really there for Milwaukee against a left-handed starter.
The Brewers are so bad against lefties that a 35-year-old Andrew McCutchen is their best hitter against left-handed pitching with a .736 OPS and six home runs. He is one of three players with an OPS over .700. I love Andrew McCutchen, but at 35 he should not be any teams only answer for lefties.
Drew Smyly is going for Chicago today and he should pick up where Justin Steele left off yesterday. The Brewers are easily one of the worst offenses against lefties and they rely heavily on homers to drive runs in. That will be tough against Smyly who’s average exit velocity is in the 92nd percentile in the MLB. His hard hit rate is also 81st percentile.
The Brewers won’t string hits together against Smyly and they will have a hard time taking him deep. So, Chicago can keep it a close, low scoring game and they have shown that they can get to the Brewers bullpen. The Cubs won yesterday with this same recipe so if it ain’t broke.
Pick: Cubs +175
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