MLB Underdog of the Day (Dylan Cease Primed to Lead White Sox to Upset Over Justin Verlander)

I am wasting no time in this intro because I absolutely have to get in on the best pitching matchup that we are going to see all season. Justin Verlander facing Dylan Cease. There is a lot of baseball left to be played, but this could very well be for the AL Cy Young, and I know who I am backing in that one. 

Let’s get right to the odds for this one from our friends over at WynnBET. 

Astros vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

• Astros -1.5 (+145)
• White Sox +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline

• Astros -121
• White Sox +111

Total

• 7.0 (Over -105 / Under -115)

Best MLB Underdog Today

First of all I have no idea how the total is this high in a matchup between the two best pitchers in the entire American League and maybe all of baseball. Sure, the houston Astros are a great offensive team and the Chicago White Sox have been playing well recently, but these two guys both have ERA’s under two. 

Anyways, let’s start with the teams. Basically identical over their last 10 games. Both 6-4 with a team ERA of 3.56 for Houston and 3.58 for Chicago. Houston has been better over the course of the year, but lately they’ve been similar and that makes Chicago a potential value as a home underdog before we even dig into Dylan Cease. 

Justin Verlander has been very good, even great this season. A 1.85 ERA and 15-3 record are evidence of that. However, his numbers just aren’t as impressive as Cease’s. Verlander’s expected ERA is in the 87th percentile, 2.89. His expected batting average and expected slugging are 68th and 75th percentile respectively, and his strikeout rate is 70th percentile. 

When you look at Dylan Cease, everything is off the charts. His xBA, xSlugging, and strikeout rate, are all 95th percentile, and his xERA is 94th. The most impressive number is the run value of his slider which is the best in the league at -31. Justin Verlander’s fastball is his best pitch at -17, which is the third best pitch by run value in the league and doesn’t even come close to Cease’s slider. 

Dylan Cease has been the best pitcher in baseball this season, it is criminal that he wasn’t an All-Star, let alone the All-Star starter and he will continue one of the best stretches of starting pitching of the last 100 years tonight. 

Pick: White Sox +111

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