MLB Underdog of the Day (Fade Patrick Corbin Again)

Have things really gotten so bad for the Pittsburgh Pirates that they deserve to be +110 underdogs to the Washington Nationals?

I don’t see it but the bookmakers don’t agree with me and have the Nationals favored in Game 2 of this series. I suppose last night’s modest 3-2 win for Washington may have tipped the scales a bit. But, one win does nothing to change my opinion that Washington should not be favored against anyone aside from extreme circumstances. I think the only extreme circumstance is this game is actually in favor of the Pirates with Patrick Corbin starting for Washington. 

Here are the odds for this showdown from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

• Pirates: +1.5 (-195)
• Nationals: -1.5 (+160)

Moneyline:

• Pirates: +110
• Nationals: -120

Total:

• Total 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Pick

My biggest issue with this game for the Nationals is Corbin and I am shocked that they are favored with him on the mound. Why? Well, for starters, Corbin is 3-10 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 73 ⅔ innings.

I mean, do you really need more than that to realize how bad this guy has been? Well, maybe he’s been great recently?

Wrong!

Corbin’s ERA in four starts this month is 5.59 and he’s allowed six home runs in that span. The Pirates are far from a hard-hitting team, but Corbin has a career .236 batting average against this lineup. And while that is pretty average, let’s not forget we are talking about the Pirates. 

Full disclosure, the Pirates’ starter tonight is also struggling this month. But, what makes Jose Quintana different from Corbin is that the former actually looked good at points this year. He finished April with a 3.32 ERA and May at 2.00. Corbin, in contrast, hasn’t looked good at all this year and I will continue to fade him. Especially at this bargain price. 

Pick: Pirates +110

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE