MLB Underdog of the Day (Trust Graham Ashcraft in St. Louis)

Steven Matz returns from the Injured List to start against Cincinnati this afternoon, but I agree with Peter Dewey that he can't be trusted.

With an 8.86 ERA in his three starts before missing time, the warning signs around Matz were screaming at us and I don't think they've quieted down yet.

Thus, today's Reds vs Cardinals matchup is setting up perfectly for one of my favorite articles each day: the MLB Underdog of the Day!

Reds vs Cardinals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Reds +1.5 (-140)
• Cardinals -1.5 (+115)

Moneyline:

• Reds: +152
• Cardinals: -165

Total:

• 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

Prior to getting hurt, Steven Matz was struggling through a terrible start to the year. He's in the 10th percentile in barrel percentage, 18th in expected batting average and 26th in average exit velocity.

Perhaps his stint on the Injured List solved his problems, but he's been an ineffective pitcher for a few years now and I can't trust him in his first start back.

Especially not against a young pitcher that's become one of my favorite arms to back, Graham Ashcraft.

The 24-year-old rookie has tremendous command while ranking in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity. He's allowed three runs or fewer in three of his last four outings and the Reds are 4-1 in his road starts this year.

If you just bet $100 on the moneyline in each of Ashcraft's road outings, you'd be up $688. That'll play!

The Cardinals' lineup won't have Nolan Arenado today and already ranked just 19th in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks. Cincinnati is 5-3 in its last eight as an underdog and with a starting pitching advantage, I love the chances for another win against the dreadful Matz.

Pick: Reds (+152)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.