MLB Underdog of the Day (Trust Guardians Over Flailing Red Sox)

The Red Sox snapped a five-game losing streak with a win over Cleveland last night, but don't think all is well in Beantown. Boston is still struggling in a massive way, and I'm looking to fade the club with Josh Winckowski on the mound tonight.

Winckowski has a 5.49 ERA at home and the Red Sox have lost three straight behind him. Even still, Winckowski finds himself a sizeable favorite tonight against a Guardians squad that's 7-4 in its last 11 as road underdogs.

I'm thrilled with the value on the board in this matchup. Using odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, let's dive into the MLB Underdog of the Day:

Guardians vs Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Guardians +1.5 (-145)
• Red Sox -1.5 (+120)

Moneyline:

• Guardians: +131
• Red Sox: -141

Total:

• 10.0 (Over -120/Under +100)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

Bryan Shaw will serve as an opener for a bullpen day from Cleveland, who has one of the better reliever groups in MLB. His metrics are poor, but he'll likely only throw the first inning regardless so his struggles won't be too impactful.

Winckowski, however, is expected to throw a normal outing. As a result, his disastrous underlying metrics will hurt Boston. Just look at the guy's MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and tell me he should be a favorite:

Yeah, you can't. Cleveland has the seventh-highest OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days and I expect the lineup to score in bunches.

With how poorly Boston is playing, it can't be trusted as a -145 favorite. The Red Sox have lost five of six when favored and now have perhaps their worst starter on the mound.

Trust Cleveland's advantages offensively, defensively, and in the bullpen to carry the Guardians to victory.

Pick: Guardians (+131)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.