Ahead of the start of the MLB season, I proclaimed for all the world to see on BetSided that Logan Gilbert would be a top 3 candidate to win the AL Cy Young award at +7000 odds.
Gilbert cruised through the month of April; winning AL Pitcher of the Month with a 3-0 record and 0.64 ERA. As I counted my potential winnings like Scrooge McDuck in a sea of coins, Gilbert turned back into a good, but not great pitcher in May with a 3.44 ERA in 36.2 innings.
So far in June, Gilbert looks more like the April stud that got my hopes up, and it's part of why I'm perplexed to see him and the Mariners as an underdog againstJose Urquidy and the Houston Astros tonight.
Before we dive in, let's first take a look at the odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds (Moneyline, Run Line, Total)
- Mariners +1.5 (-160)
- Astros -1.5 (+130)
- Mariners +123
- Astros -133
- 8.5 (OVER +100 | UNDER -120)
Best MLB Underdog Pick Today
There was a bit of tongue-in-cheek nature to the question of, "Why are the Mariners not favored against the Astros on the road?" The Mariners are 11 games back of the Astros in the AL West, while Houston is 15-7 at home this year.
But the starting pitching matchup shows a decisive advantage for Seattle.
Gilbert came back to earth from a magnificent start to the season, but he still holds a sparkling 2.22 ERA and Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.09 this year. He's already faced Houston's lineup back at the end of May, going seven shutout innings; giving up just four hits, no walks and five strikeouts.
Urquidy, on the other hand, has a 5-2 record, which might be one of the only positives I can speak on him for this season. His ERA is 4.76, and via Fangraphs, his expected ERA (xERA) is up over 6! His strikeout rate has taken a dip from a season ago, and his HR/9 is the highest of his career at 1.6.
I get that Houston's offense ranks top-4 in wins-above-replacement (WAR) this season; trailing only the Mets, Dodgers and Yankees, but Gilbert has already proven to be amongst the league's best starters. If he continues to throw strikes and be on the attack, I don't see a reason why the sixth-ranked Mariners' offense can't pounce on the struggling Urquidy, while Gilbert keeps Seattle in the game.
I love the M's as an underdog against their division rivals tonight, so jump in before the line moves in their favor.
PICK: Mariners ML +123