MLB Underdog of the Day (Twins and Mets With Value on Sunday, June 5)

Devin Smeltzer has a 1.50 ERA through four starts
Devin Smeltzer has a 1.50 ERA through four starts / David Berding/GettyImages

There's nothing better than cashing an underdog, knowing you went against the grain and your intuition came through in the clutch.

With a packed MLB slate carrying us throughout the afternoon and into the evening, there's a number of potential upsets we could target.

But using the odds at WynnBET, I've found two underdogs with tremendous value that rise above the crop.

Twins vs Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Twins +1.5 (+100)
  • Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)


  • Twins: +210
  • Blue Jays: -230


  • 8.0 (Over (-130)/Under +110)

Best MLB Underdog Pick Today

The Blue Jays should certainly be favored over Minnesota, but this line is way too big even with Kevin Gausman on the mound. Twins' starter Devin Smeltzer has been among the league's best pitchers since being called up from the minors and has a real shot to go toe-to-toe with the Cy Young candidate in Toronto.

In four starts, Smeltzer has a 1.50 ERA and hasn't allowed a home run. He's in the 89th percentile in walk rate and 93rd in both barrel percentage and expected ERA. In fact, Smeltzer's expected ERA (2.41) is even better than Guasman's (2.93) and would rank second among all MLB pitchers if he had enough innings to qualify.

Gausman is in just the 51st percentile in expected batting average and is much worse against right-handed batters than lefties, with a 1.47 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) against right-handers compared to a 0.70 WHIP against left-handed hitters.

Minnesota has won four of five as a road underdog and were victorious in both of Smeltzer's road starts. At +210, I can't resisit backing the Twins and one of baseball's hottest pitchers.

Mets vs Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mets +1.5 (-130)
  • Dodgers -1.5 (+110)


  • Mets: +160
  • Dodgers: -175


  • 9.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Bonus MLB Underdog Pick Today

Over Julio Urias' last two home starts, he has a 6.75 ERA and has allowed six home runs. The Dodgers are 1-4 in his last five outings overall and his 4.51 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) indicates there may be something wrong with the 25-year-old lefty.

The Mets' lineup has been rolling and I think they find success against Urias today. They'd won three of four as an underdog entering the series and are making a compelling case to unseat Los Angeles as the best team in the National League.

Trevor Williams may actually be the better starting pitcher in this matchup. The 30-year-old former second-round pick is enjoying a breakout season for New York, holding four of his last five opponents scoreless while ranking in the 90th percentile in expected ERA.

If he had enough innings to qualify, Williams' expected ERA (2.68) would be tied for eighth-best in all of baseball.

At +160, I'll gladly take the Mets to split the series and push the Dodgers to 2-5 in their last seven as a home favorite.

Keep these two underdogs in mind as you head to WynnBET to lock in your wagers for the day. If you're feeling extra rambunctious, a Twins/Mets moneyline parlay pays out +719 odds. A $25 bet would profit $179.75 and that's a simply delightful payout for two teams that I think will win.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.