Betsided

Monday Night Football Best Prop Bets for Saints vs. Buccaneers (This Alvin Kamara Prop Number is Far Too Low)

By Ben Heisler

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has seen an average of just under seven targets per game in his last five vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has seen an average of just under seven targets per game in his last five vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
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Two below .500 teams match up on Monday Night Football under the lights at Raymond James Stadium, despite both squads still remaining for the postseason.

The NFC South has been a dumpster fire through the first two-thirds of the NFL season, and the 4-8 New Orleans Saints and 5-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers still remain near the top of the standings; fighting for a postseason birth with a very winnable division.

Here's how the latest betting odds shake out for tonight:

I laid out my case for why I'm backing the total tonight here, but there's also several prop bets I'm interested in wagering on as well.

Here are my top three prop bets available on the board to consider for Monday Night Football from Tampa.

Best Monday Night Football Prop Bets for Saints vs. Buccaneers

  • Jarvis Landry UNDER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
  • Alvin Kamara OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
  • Chris Godwin Anytime TD (+188)

Jarvis Landry UNDER 42.5 Receiving Yards

Landry's been limited in practice from Thursday through Saturday, and while more opportunities might be open in the middle of the field with tight end Juwan Johnson out, Landry's done little to nothing to prove this year that he's worth trusting to hit this total. Landry has failed to hit this number in every game but one this year; Week 1 vs. the Atlanta Falcons.

His yardage has actually decreased over the last three weeks from 37, 33 and then 20, and has only played 32 of 57 snaps in the last two weeks. With Kamara as an option (we'll get to him later), as well as two other tight ends in Adam Trautman and receiver Rashid Shaheed that they'll rotate in, I think the number is unreasonably inflated due to the matchup.

In the interest of transparency, I took the UNDER 43.5 earlier on Sunday when it was still available. It's since gone down to 42.5-41.5 at some books, and I still would bet it down to 40.5.

Alvin Kamara OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards

The Saints missed Kamara dearly in their Week 2 loss to the Bucs, as he was out for New Orleans with a rib injury. While he's struggled to gain receiving yards in his last three games against Tampa, there's reason to believe a breakthrough could be coming.

Kamara's yards per catch have been remarkably low this year, and he's simply too talented to see this many targets in the passing game and not have a breakaway opportunity come his way. He's also passed this line in all but two games since October 9.

Kamara's targets and receptions have all gone up since the start of November in each game. The Saints are desparate for big plays and will rely on their most consistent playmaker over the last several years in Kamara to help move the chains and hopefully break off a big run/catch.

Chris Godwin Anytime TD

The number of targets thrown Chris Godwin's way are absurd. He's seen double digit targets in all but three games this year, including a 13 target, 12 reception game in the Bucs' previous matchup vs. the Browns.

Godwin has also scored in his last two games after not getting into the end zone all season, finally making up for some positive touchdown regression coming his way. Brady clearly trusts him, and with the 45-year old quarterback throwing the second-most number of attempts in the NFL this year, I'll back Godwin's opportunity based on sheer volume to do it a third straight week.

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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