Monday Night Football Prop Bet: Examining Lamar Jackson's Over/Under Rushing Yards

There has been no team with worse injury luck than the Ravens leading up to the 2021 NFL season. Baltimore is down their top three running backs, all out for the year, and will not have a running back on the roster that has taken handoffs from quarterback Lamar Jackson before. 

However, Jackson is one of the most dangerous rushers in the NFL, breaking 1,000 yards on the ground over the last two seasons. 

Jackson’s rushing yard prop is set at 70.5 at WynnBET, with the over listed at -130 odds and the under set at +100.

The Raiders had one of the worst rush defenses in the league last season, allowing the 13th highest rushing success rate and 9th worst explosive rush rate, per SharpFootball Stats.

As Jackson gets acclimated to new starting running back Ty’Son Williams, I expect him to keep a ton of zone reads and break off several for big gains. Last season, he cleared 71 yards six times in 15 games, but again, this is a poor Raiders rush defense.

The pushback is that the Raiders have a new defensive coordinator in Gus Bradley, who famously limited Jackson in the 2019 Playoffs with the Los Angeles Chargers. Jackson only had nine carries for 54 yards in the loss, but I’m expecting a much higher workload for him on Monday night given the injuries at running back.

Also, this is the first game for Bradley and this unit. It may take some time for the rush defense to improve from last season.

Lastly, Jackson is going to be more confident using his legs all game than throwing downfield. Four of the Ravens top five receivers didn't play in the preseason, and I expect some growing pains in the passing game.

I’ll count on Jackson’s most dangerous weapon, his legs, to go over this rushing total.