Monday Night Football UNDERs Are Hitting at Shocking Rate This Season
Betting the under, whether it's a full game, half, props or any other derivative always feels a little deflating to me, even if a win is never in doubt.
There's just something about rooting for things to not happen that takes away some of the joy of sports in general and NFL football in particular -- at least for me.
No one tunes in to watch offensive ineptitude and punt after punt.
Thursday Night Football is generally the worst for this, as the short week necessitates little practice, compressed travel schedules and simpler game plans.
Using that logic, it would seem that Monday Night Football should be made for OVERs since there's additional time to prepare and maybe add a wrinkle or two.
If you guessed that to be the case as I did, you would be wrong as I was. Only one of 13 Monday Night Football games in 2023 has gone over the projected total.
Week 11 was once again another big week for the Under with 10 of the 14 games going below the total.
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) November 21, 2023
The Under has now hit in 60.7% of games overall. MNF Unders have been especially strong, going a ridiculous 12-1.
12 of 13 games going UNDER is inviting, but each game is an island of it's own, and blindly betting trends is not typically the smartest strategy, especially when the outcomes of each game are independent of each other.
Bears vs. Vikings Odds, Spread and Total
With the total sitting at 43 for Monday night's Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears tilt, I was interested in vetting the contrarian angle, looking for a way to bet on the over.
That is until I couldn't really find any except the possibility of a defensive or special team touchdown, which is a real thing, but not something that you want to count on when betting hard-earned money.
Justin Fields is back for the Bears and he accounted for 273 total yards last week in a loss to Detroit, while Joshua Dobbs is writing his own story in Minneapolis after being rescued off the scrap heap from Arizona.
While the quarterbacks are generally the story, the question of whether Justin Jefferson plays for the Vikings could be the answer to which way to go on this bet.
As of Friday, Jefferson was non-committal on playing, which leads me to believe even if he does play, he won't be a hundred percent. Still, Jefferson's status is something to keep an eye on. Minnesota listed him as questionable for Monday's contest.
Vikings are listing WR Justin Jefferson as questionable for Monday night’s game vs. the Bears.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 25, 2023
While these two teams played a 19-13 game (without Jefferson) in mid-October in Chicago. The quarterback matchup in that game was Tyson Bagent vs. Kirk Cousins. Neither will start this week.
With Fields back for the Bears, I would expect a quicker game and fewer plays as Fields adds a ground element that should keep the clock moving.
Add to that the fact that Vikings games have gone under in eight of 11 games this season and have allowed over 21 points just once in the last six games (and that was on the road), and you have multiple reasons to be on the under.
I love being contrarian, but I refuse to do that when the analysis leads me in the exact opposite direction.
Pick: Bears vs. Vikings UNDER 43.0
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