Monmouth vs. Saint Peter's Prediction and Odds For MAAC Tournament Championship (Peacocks to Strut Their Stuff)

Someone will secure a trip to the NCAA Tournament today as the 21-12 Monmouth Hawks take on the 18-11Saint Peter's Peacocks in the MAAC Tournament Championship today at 4:00 PM EST.

In my MAAC Tournament preview, I picked neither of these teams. Yay me. But I've been graciously bestowed a second-chance and I'm ready to pick a winner today.

Saint Peter's swept the regular season series over Monmouth, winning both games by five, and have covered the spread in six straight. The Hawks won their first two tournament matchups by a combined seven points and have become something like close-game aficionados lately.

Will that experience propel Monmouth to victory today or will the Peacocks keep rolling straight to March Madness?

Here are the odds over at WynnBET to give us some value in this MAAC Tournament Championship:

Monmouth vs Saint Peter's Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Monmouth: +2.5 (-110)
• Saint Peter's: -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Monmouth: +115
• Saint Peter's: -140

Total:

• Total 124.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Monmouth vs Saint Peter's Prediction and Pick

When I previewed this tournament, I worried about the Peacocks propensity to turn the ball over and thought it would get them into trouble. Those concerns haven't been completely unfounded, as Saint Peter's had 20 turnovers in the first two rounds, but their defense has been so good it hasn't mattered.

Over the last five games, the Peacocks are in the 100th percentile in defensive rating nationally behind a 99th-percentile ranking in block percentage and a 95th-percentile score in defensive rebounding. Monmouth is not a good offensive team. They're 266th in the country in effective field goal percentage thanks to a 290th-ranked two-point offense. I don't see how the Hawks can score today.

So that means they'll need to rely on their defense to stop Saint Peter's. Uh, good luck with that. Monmouth is in the 7th percentile in defensive rating in their last five contests and 13th in defensive rebounding, so the Peacocks will have plenty of second-chance opportunities even if they aren't hitting shots.

The Hawks had failed to cover in four straight before narrowly winning their first two MAAC Tournament games while Saint Peter's is an absurd 18-4 against the spread over the last four months. This line is too small - the Peacocks are going to the NCAA Tournament in convincing fashion.

Pick: Saint Peter's -2.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.