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Monmouth vs. Siena Prediction and Odds (Keep Fading Fraudulent Saints)

By Ben Heisler

Siena's Aiden Carpenter tries to avoid getting a shot blocked against the St. Bonnaventure Bonnies.
Siena's Aiden Carpenter tries to avoid getting a shot blocked against the St. Bonnaventure Bonnies. / Timothy T Ludwig/GettyImages
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The Siena Saints host the Monmouth Hawks in their final regular season home game of the year this afternoon at 2 p.m. ET.

The Saints are tied with Saint Peter's for second place in the MAAC with the conference tournament coming up in just over a week and a half. Both squads remain four games out from MAAC leader Iona.

Monmouth remains only one game back of Siena and Saint Peter's and would put itself in a great position to overtake the two schools with two winnable games left vs. Quinnipiac and Rider.

After the Hawks defeated the Saints back on February 22nd by a 71-59 score, who's got the edge in today's matinee?

Let's dive into the odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Monmouth vs. Siena Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Monmouth -2 (-110)
  • Sienna +2 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Monmouth -130
  • Sienna +110

Total:

133.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Monmouth vs. Siena Prediction and Pick

Last week, ahead of Siena's matchup vs Marist I explained why I was all over the Red Foxes to cover on the road. Their losing record overall was not a true reflection of how good of a team they've been this season. The same can be said for Siena, who despite their second place standings, have been beaten up by better teams consistently this season, while also giving up more points (69.2) than they've scored all year (66.6).

I'm going back to the well this week to take the Hawks, and the oddsmakers believe in them as well, listing them as short road favorites.

Monmouth has been one of the best teams in college basketball all season covering the spread; going 19-9-0 ATS, including 6-2-0 as a road favorite. They're also 13-2-0 ATS on the road in general.

While those trends are nice, these are the numbers that are most important.

Siena has a bottom 100 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, via KenPom, ranking 272nd in the country and 8th in the MAAC. They rank a full 100 teams below Monmouth (141 to 241) in KenPom's College Basketball Overall Ratings. When these two teams played on the 22nd, the Hawks limited the Saints to 15% from three-point range and just 19 first half points. Siena ranks sixth in the country in "Luck Rating," and we're starting to see why.

I think "Senior Day" and their final home game of the season is giving off a friendlier line than it should be. If that concerns you off taking Monmouth minus the points, I get it, but I'll be riding with the Hawks today.

PICK: Monmouth -2 (-110)

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