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Montana State vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Odds for NCAA Men's Tournament First Round

By Reed Wallach

Mar 12, 2022; Kansas City, MO, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Marcus Santos-Silva (14) dunks
Mar 12, 2022; Kansas City, MO, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders forward Marcus Santos-Silva (14) dunks / Amy Kontras-USA TODAY Sports
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Texas Tech came up short in the Big 12 Conference Tournament Final, but looks the part of a Final Four contender in a loaded West Region. The Red Raiders are the No. 3 seed in the West and will face Montana State in the first round.

Mark Adams' Texas Tech Red Raiders have the best defense in the country and will begin their NCAA Tournament run against Big Sky conference champions Montana State on Friday.

Here are the odds for the 3/14 matchup with odds from WynnBET Sportsbook, statistical breakdown for each team, and a best bet.

Montana State vs. Texas Tech Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Montana State +14.5 (-110)
  • Texas Tech -14.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Montana State +800
  • Texas Tech -1400

Total: 130 (Over -110/Under -110)

Montana State vs. Texas Tech Analysis

Montana State

  • Regular Season Record: 27-7
  • ATS Record: 17-14-1
  • Over/Under Record: 17-15
  • SoS: 229th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 104.5
  • Defensive Efficiency: 100.7
  • eFG%: 53.8%
  • FT%: 75%
  • 3PT%: 36.8%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +3000 (Field)

Texas Tech

  • Overall Record: 25-8
  • ATS Record:21-12
  • Over/Under Record: 15-18
  • SoS: 14th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 110.0
  • Defensive Efficiency: 85.0
  • eFG%: 52.5%
  • FT%: 70.3%
  • 3PT%: 31.6%
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: Second Round
  • Odds to win National Championship: +2500

Montana State vs. Texas Tech Prediction and Pick

I think Texas Tech is an elite team by every metric and should have little issue beating the Bobcats, but can they cover a massive spread?

I find myself leaning towards the underdog in this spot given Montana State's ability to shoot well (32nd in effective field goal percentage) and are one of the best at getting to the free throw line (4th in free throw rate) and shoot it 75% as a team.

Montana State is comfortable playing from the perimeter, ranking 215th in shot proximity, and Texas Tech plays at a methodical tempo (211th in the country), are 295th in turnover rate, and shoot 69% as a team. While I think highly of the team's defense, they aren't built to cover as massive favorites against a MSU team that can shoot from the perimeter.

I lean towards both the dog and the under in this matchup as Texas Tech may be in line to win this one with their preferred method, scoring in the mid 60's and suffocating Montana State's offense.

LEAN: Montana State +14.5, UNDER 130

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