Morehead State vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Round (Live Underdog?)
By Reed Wallach
Illinois, fresh off a Big Ten Tournament title, starts its path to the National Championship as the No. 3 seed in the East Region against No. 14 seed Morehead State, Ohio Valley Conference Champions.
The Fighting Illini are paced by a top five offense in the country, but will face a dynamic Morehead State team that is well balanced and has the length to challenge the likes of Terrance Shannon Jr. on the perimeter.
Is there an upset brewing in this matchup? I got you covered below:
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Morehead State vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total
Illinois vs. Morehead State Betting Trends
- Morehead State is 19-11 against the spread (ATS) this season against Division 1 competition
- Illinois is 19-13-1 ATS this season
- Morehead State is 4-3 ATS as an underdog this season
- Illinois has gone OVER in 23 of 33 games this season
Morehead State vs. Illinois How to Watch
- Date: Thursday, March 21
- Game Time: 3:10 PM EST
- Venue: CHI Health Center Omaha
- How to Watch (TV): truTV
- Morehead State Record: 26-8
- Illinois Record: 25-8
Morehead State vs. Illinois Key Players to Watch
Morehead State
Riley Minix: Averaging about 21 points and 10 rebounds while shooting 55% from the field on nearly 34% three-point percentage, Minix has flammable capabilities. The guard is the engine behind a Morehead State offense who chucks it from deep, 25th in 3-point rate, but more than capable scoring inside, shooting 55% on 2-pointers.
Illinois
Terrance Shannon Jr.: Shannon is off a monster performance in the Big Ten Tournament, scoring at least 28 points in all three games in Minnesota last week, caped by a 34 point effort in the title game against Wisconsin. Can he continue to cook against a formidable Eagles defense that has length to challenge him and make life difficult for this Illinois offense?
Morehead State vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick
I think this is a nightmare matchup for Illinois, who has cratered on defense over the last month of the season.
The Fighting Illini are 157th in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1 mainly because the team is bottom five in the country in turnover rate in that time frame according to Bart Torvik.
This is notable because the one knock on Morehead State is that the team is sloppy with the ball, outside the top 250 in turnover rate. However, if Illinois isn't going to pressure the rock and force Morehead State to turn it over, the Eagles are going to dictate this game and make it a half court battle.
The Eagles are 335th in adjusted tempo, and incredibly potent, 38th in points per possession in the half court at a top 10 frequency per ShotQuality. If Illinois isn't going to turn the team over I'm struggling to see the team pulling away from Morehead, who is an elite defense that has plenty of length to stick to Shannon and Coleman Hawkins that can slow this game down.
Morehead doesn't allow many 3s, ranking top 20 in 3-point rate and is 44th in average height.
This was a brutal draw for Illinois, who can't expose the Eagles biggest weakness. The defense has been a concern for Brad Underwood's group all season, but a run in the Big Ten Tournament has quieted some doubts about the team's viability as a Final Four contender.
However, this game is going to be tight until the end (just like Illinois-Chatanooga two years ago in the 5/12 first round game), and I think Morehead State is live to pull the upset.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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