Mountain West Football Best Bets and Predictions: San Jose State Can Contend in 2022

The Mountain West has some clear tiers in it, and trying to sift through them can be tricky.

San Jose State's quick stint at the top of the conference was met with the harsh reality of how quickly a team can lose their way. After winning the Mountain West Championship in 2020, the team fell apart on offense and went 5-7, missing a bowl game all together. They will try to get back into the mix with a handful of transfers and a ferocious defensive line.

Speaking of downfalls, Hawai'i is starting at the ground floor in 2022 after the quick dismal of Todd Graham last winter. The Rainbow Warriors brought in first time head coach and former star quarterback Timmy Chang to lead the rebuild, how will that go with only six returning starters?

Here is how I'm playing San Jose State and Hawai'i in the regular season win total market:

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

You can find all of my College Football bets on my betstamp @rw33

San Jose State OVER 6.5 Wins (+125)

The Spartans fell apart in 2022 after a dream season in 2020. After bringing back a ton of players from the title team, some poor variance did them in.

The Spartans had the fourth worst turnover margin in the country in 2021 and the team couldn't find consistency on offense. After missing a bowl game, head coach Brent Brennan hit the transfer portal for help.

Brennan found a ton of Mountain West stalwarts to try and jumpstart the redemption tour. While Nick Nash is a veteran presence in the quarterback room, Hawai'i transfer Chevan Cordeiro likely has the leg up after compiling more than 3,000 all purpose yards last season.

Cordeiro is joined by fellow MWC transfers Elijah Cooks and Justin Lockhart from Nevada and the team still has No. 2 receiver from last season Isaiah Hamilton on hand. This offense has the potential to take a big step forward after bottoming out last year.

Cordeiro and Co. can add an explosive element to the roster that desperately needs it. The team was outside the top 85 in explosive rush and pass rate as well as overall success rate.

On defense, many key contributors are back -- eight of the top nine tacklers -- to an elite defense for MWC standards. The team was 68th nationally in defensive success rate and allowed just 5.14 yards per play, good for 35th in the country. The D did their part, it's now on the offense to help make this team a contender again.

With experience back like defensive end Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall who have combined for 21 sacks in their career, this Spartans defense is set for another strong campaign.

I made the case for SJSU to win the conference at +2800 here, so of course I like the over on the win total as well.

The team does have to go to Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State, but outside of a trip to Auburn in non conference play and a closely lined spread at Wyoming, the team should be favored in the remaining seven games.

Considering I'm bullish on the Spartans in 2022, I love the price on this win total and for San Jose State to push for another MWC title this season.

Hawai'i UNDER 4.5 Wins (-125)

What are we supposed to make of this team?

The team scrapped together a six win season in 2021, but almost nobody is back from that roster. The team had their bowl game cancelled and head coach Todd Graham was fired due to the mass exodus of players amidst criticism of his coaching tactics.

The team has the lowest returning production mark in the country at 27% and are handing the reigns over to a first time head coach in Chang. Yes, he had a successful playing career, but this is year one of what could be an arduous rebuild for a coach that has never coached at the FBS level.

The team is a 6.5-point underdog at home in their opener against Vanderbilt, followed by another home game against Western Kentucky where they are catching 12.5 points.

Sure, they get FCS Duquesne, but there are not many wins on the schedule. New Mexico State on the road and UNLV are the team's only real shot at being lined within striking distance and the schedule doesn't do them any favors.

Hawai'i takes their bye the first week in October, meaning they play eight straight games to close out the season.

With a first time head coach, a whole new roster, and a putrid travel routine week-to-week, I can't see the Rainbow Warriors anywhere but at the bottom of the MWC.

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.