MTSU vs. Alabama Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 1
By Reed Wallach
Alabama starts its pursuit for a return to the College Football Playoff on Saturday at home against Middle Tennessee State.
Nick Saban opted not to release a depth chart ahead of this game, but the expectation is that Alabama will start last year's backup Jalen Milroe at quarterback, but will rotate with Ty Simpson, Tyler Buchner and potentially others as well.
The Crimson Tide will likely win with any combination of the quarterbacks, but with a few different QB's coming in throughout the game, can that impact how to bet the point spread?
Let's break it all down and land on a best bet for this one.
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Middle Tennessee State vs. Alabama Odds, Spread and Total
Alabama vs. Middle Tennessee State Betting Trends
- Alabama went 6-6 against the spread (ATS) last season
- Alabama went 2-1 ATS in non conference play at home last season
- Middle Tennessee State went 5-6-1 ATS last season
- Middle Tennessee State went 5-5 ATS as an underdog last season
- Middle Tennessee State went 2-1 ATS as a double digit underdog last season
Middle Tennessee State vs. Alabama How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, September 2nd
- Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
- Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): SEC Network
- Middle Tennessee State Record: 0-0
- Alabama Record: 0-0
Middle Tennessee State vs. Alabama Key Players to Watch
Middle Tennessee State
Nicholas Vattiato: Vattiato has been utilized as a backup over the past two seasons behind Chase Cunningham, but now steps into the starting role. The Blue Raiders have one of the lowest returning productions in college football this season, bringing back only 44% of last year's production, per ESPN, 116th in the country. MTSU struggled overall on offense, 98th in EPA/Play, but were decent passing the ball because the team stretched the field with Cunningham, ranking top 25 in explosive pass rate. Vattiato will have some decent sized shoes to fill for Cunningham given the team's passing offense over the past few years.
Alabama
Jalen Milroe: Milroe will likely draw the start, the dual-threat signal caller who showed flashes as an electric rusher last season when Bryce Young was banged out or taken out due to a lopsided score. He averaged nearly nine yards per carry on 31 rushes across eight appearances last season while only completing 58% of his 53 passes with a 5-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He will need to showcase improved passing to hold off the likes of Simpson and Buchner.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
While Alabama has a quarterback competition, I don't see much issue against the Blue Raiders, who don't have a proven commodity under center to do enough on offense to hang around even this massive spread.
While Bryce Young is no longer on the roster, the team rolled over the two Group of Five opponents last season, winning by a combined score of 118-7 against Utah State and Louisiana-Monroe.
The Crimson Tide will shut down the MTSU offense and give the team ample opportunities to score. While much has been made about the new clock changes, you can read here why I'm not overreacting to the changes and think you should still bet overs in the right situations, the Crimson Tide are still looking at in the neighborhood of six to eight possessions in this one.
Given the size advantage up front for the Crimson Tide, I expect the team to score touchdowns on nearly all of them. Even when it's mop up duty, Alabama is a threat to score and win this one by 40-plus.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!