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Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs. Purdue Prediction and Odds

By Matt De Saro

The Tennessee Volunteers and Purdue Boilermakers collide on Thursday in the 2021 Music City Bowl.
The Tennessee Volunteers and Purdue Boilermakers collide on Thursday in the 2021 Music City Bowl. / Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA
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Thursday afternoon brings us a great matchup in the Music City Bowl between the Purdue Boilermakers and the Tennessee Volunteers at Nissan Stadium. The Boilermakers finished the regular season with an 8-4 record and went 6-3 in a tough Big Ten. For the first time in years, Purdue beat two top-3 teams in the same year with victories over No. 2 Iowa and No. 3 Michigan State. Purdue missed out on the Big Ten title but was able to finish the season with a blowout win over rival Indiana. 

This will be a quasi-home game for the Volunteers with the game taking place a short drive from their home court in Knoxville. The Vols enter this Bowl Game having won three of their last four games but are just 2-4 against the spread in their last six.

Here are the odds for the Music City Bowl, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Tennessee vs. Purdue Spread and Over/Under

Spread:

  • Tennessee: -6 (-110) 
  • Purdue: +6 (-110) 

Moneyline:

  • Tennessee: -215
  • Purdue: +175

Total:

  • 64 (Over -110/Under -110)

Tennessee vs. Purdue Betting Trends

  • The Vols are 2-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games. 
  • The OVER is 5-0 in the Vols’ last five games. 
  • The OVER is 7-1 in the Vols’ last eight games. 
  • The Vols are 5-0 straight up (SU) in their last five games against the Big Ten. 
  • The OVER is 5-0 in the Vols’ last five games as a favorite. 
  •  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. 
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the Boilermakers’ last five games against the SEC. 
  • The Boilermakers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. 

Tennessee vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Josh Heupel has this Volunteers team clicking in his first season as head coach. The offense finished the regular season ranked 10th in points per game at 37.3 and is a threat to go off against Purdue. They are averaging 462.5 yards per game and are converting nearly 50 percent of their third-down attempts. The offense is led by Hendon Hooker who is completing almost 70 percent of his passes and has 26 touchdowns against three interceptions. 

The problem with Tennessee continues to be their defense. They allow 30 PPG to oppose teams and an average of 425.1 yards per contest. And while Purdue is no offensive powerhouse, they are good enough to make Tennessee pay for any major mistakes. Aidan O’Connell leads the team and has a 73.5 completion percentage with an average of 340.5 passing yards per game. 

While I like Purdue as an underdog here, they will be without two of their best players in with pass rusher George Karlaftis and WR David Bell. The Boilermakers already have suspect wideout depth and with their best receiver out, I don’ trust the rest of the pass-catchers to puck up the slack. 

Pick: Tennessee -6 (-110)

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