Mystics vs. Liberty Prediction and Odds for WNBA Playoffs Game 1 (Bad Matchup for NY?)

The New York Liberty are heavily favored in Game 1 against the Washington Mystics.
Washington Mystics forward Elena Delle Donne.
Washington Mystics forward Elena Delle Donne. / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Liberty are the No. 2 seed in the WNBA playoffs, and they’ll take on Elena Delle Donne and the Washington Mystics in the first round of the playoffs, starting with Game 1 on Friday night. 

The Mystics are major underdogs in this game and series, and a big reason why is the loss of star, Shakira Austin, for at least Games 1 and 2 of the first round. That’s not the only loss that Washington is dealing with either, as Kristi Toliver (torn ACL) is done for the season. 

Still, there has to be some hope on the Washington side after the team ended the regular season with a 90-88 win over the Liberty in New York. These teams actually split their season series in 2023, a great sign for Washington considering the fact New York only lost eight games all season. 

The star power of Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, Courtney Vandersloot and Betnijah Laney certainly will be tough to match, which is why New York is one of the favorites to win the Finals.

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Let’s dive into the odds for Game 1:  

Mystics vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Mystics vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Of all the matchups to get in the first round, this may be the one that New York wanted the least. 

In the four matchups between these two teams, the Liberty lost by 16, won by two in overtime, won by nine and lost by two. 

Not exactly ideal. 

Austin being out certainly gives the Liberty a bit of a break, but either way I think it’s a massive ask for the team to win a playoff game by double digits. 

The Mystics finished the regular season in the top five in net rating and defensive rating, and they do have a star in Delle Donne that can go shot-for-shot with Stewart if necessary. 

The Liberty have a clear depth advantage with Austin out, but the Mystics were 13-10 when Delle Donne played this season and 6-11 without her. 

The star forward’s presence is the difference for this roster, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Washington's defense is able to keep it in this game. I’ll take the 9.5 points here in game one since New York has actually been outscored in this season series. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's betting record here.