Betsided

Nathan's 4th Of July Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Prediction, Preview

An American tradition continues in the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest from Coney Island in Brooklyn, New York.

By Benjamin Upson

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating champion Joey Chestnut's belt before the Lugnuts game against the TinCaps on Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023, at Jackson Field in Lansing. Chestnut was participating in an olive burger eating contest before the game.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating champion Joey Chestnut's belt before the Lugnuts game against the TinCaps on Thursday, Aug. 10, 2023, at Jackson Field in Lansing. Chestnut was participating in an olive burger eating contest before the game. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA
facebooktwitterreddit

It’s the annual July 4th celebration across America as the eyes of the United States turn to the corners of Surf and Stillwell Avenue at Coney Island on the south shores of Brooklyn, New York. The 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is upon us once again on America’s birthday with nothing but anticipation ahead of the annual chowdown.

A significant contender is absent from the field this year, 16-time Nathan’s Hot Dog champion Joey Chestnut is not allowed to participate in this event due to a sponsorship issue with his partner, Impossible Foods. The company sells plant-based hot dogs, which goes against the Nathan’s brand as a rival and competitor. 

Chestnut has talked with Sports Illustrated about this circumstance, and it circles back to Major League Eating enforcing some rules against working with additional partners for him and other professional eaters. There is a chance with this current dispute that Chestnut may not be able to return to Coney Island for future Nathan’s July 4th competitions.

Fear not, because while we don’t have the king of Independence Day in the field, this competition just got wide open. One man not named Joey Chestnut will be crowned as the next winner of this unique event. Here’s what you should target in the 2024 hot dog eating contest.

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

  • Geoffrey Esper -105 
  • James Webb +145
  • Nick Wehry +650
  • Patrick Bertoletti +1000
  • Field +2500
  • Gideon Oji +4000
  • Derek Hendrickson +7500
  • Darrien Thomas +7500
  • Max Stanford +7500
  • George Chiger +7500

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Predictions

  • Nick Wehry To Win (+750)
  • James Webb/Geoffrey Esper UNDER 99.5 Combined Hot Dogs (+110)

Nick Wehry To Win (+750)

With Joey Chestnut absent from the competition, I really love how open this field is.

There are certainly a bunch of guys who could come out on top on Thursday, however one contestant stands out amongst the rest.

In his past hot dog contests, Wehry has finished 4th in 2023 (45 dogs), 4th in 2022 (40), 3rd in 2021 (44) and 6th in 2019 (36). His total is listed at 46.5 this time around and it seems that Wehry has gotten more attention by the betting public. This is likely due to his relatively consistent finishes in this competition.

He has certainly become a face in Major League Eating. At 35 years old, his size and physicality definitely come in handy to help him embrace any eating competition that he faces.

Let’s not forget that his wife is Miki Sudo, who has dominated the women’s hot dog contest as a 9-time winner. It’s only fitting that the power couple can get it done in 2024 together. I really love this storyline and the price that’s available so I’m going to run with Nick Wehry in this spot.

James Webb/Geoffrey Esper UNDER 99.5 Combined Hot Dogs (+110)

This prop is very intriguing to me. It is a rather high number for two contenders not named Joey Chestnut.

Both James Webb and Geoffrey Esper are certainly among the best contenders in this field no disrespect, but they have ultimately struggled to hit this number when looking at the two prior competitions they have eaten together in. 

2022 was a combined 88.5 hot dogs (47.5 for Esper, 41 for Webb). In 2023, they accounted for 96 dogs (Esper 49, Webb 47). I simply can’t see such a drastic jump this time around. With Chestnut out of the competition, it feels like the pace is going to slightly decrease as a whole since there is not a lot of pressure to keep up with him. 

The important reminder in all of this is that hot dogs AND buns need to be consumed for the official numbers that are counted. Even with some favorable weather in the upper 70s and low 80s at Coney Island which could help the eaters, it’s still a lot of hot dogs in the end. I’m going to side with Esper and Webb to tick just under this number of 99.5. The price is decent as well.

Note: Odds are subject to change.

Home/Best Bets