Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Monday, September 19 (An Offensive Explosion in Atlanta)

By far the tightest divisional race in the MLB is taking place in the NL East between last year’s World Series champion, Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets. The Mets just got done with a three-game series against Pittsburgh, now the Braves get the Washington Nationals.

Tonight begins a three-game series between Atlanta and the worst team in baseball, but these two divisional foes still have six games left to play this season. 

Cory Abbot starts the first of those six tonight for the Nationals. Kyle Wright will do his best to extend Atlanta’s three-game winning streak. 

Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

The Braves are rightfully massive favorites tonight. They lead the season series against Washington, 10-3 and just swept the Phillies. They have the much better pitcher on the mound in Kyle Wright who has a 3.18 ERA and an 18-5 record, and the Nationals could be without Nelson Cruz. Cruz is day-to-day with an eye injury and did not play in Sunday’s loss to Miami. Miraculously Cruz is the team’s RBI leader with 64 and OBP leader at just .313. 

I’ll say that again, of the players on the Nationals who have played enough games to qualify and are still currently on the team, Nelson Cruz’s .313 on base percentage is the best on the team. 

I just don’t see much value in taking the Braves on the moneyline with -164 odds the best I can find. If it moved to -2.5 on the run line at even or plus odds then I would absolutely take that, but for now the run line is a stay away for me. 

Cory Abbot has a 4.37 ERA, but an awful 5.88 fielding independent pitching that could signal impending regression. I’ll lean towards the over in this one because I think Atlanta could have an offensive explosion especially if Abbot has to cover a lot of innings. 

Lean: Over 8.5 (-105)

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