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Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 9 (Patrick Corbin No Match for Atlanta)

By Joe Summers

The Nationals are 1-6 in Patrick Corbin's road starts this year, getting outscored 52-16 in those contests
The Nationals are 1-6 in Patrick Corbin's road starts this year, getting outscored 52-16 in those contests / Mitchell Layton/GettyImages
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The 50-35 Atlanta Braves remain one of the hottest teams in MLB, and hope to keep that flame alive against the 30-56 Washington Nationals this afternoon at 4:10 PM EST.

Kyle Wright brings a 9-4 record and 2.91 ERA into the contest for Atlanta. He's allowed only one run over his last two starts, while the Braves won six of his last seven outings.

Washington turns to Patrick Corbin, who just had his best two-start stretch of the season. He allowed two runs in 15 combined innings against Pittsburgh and Miami, though his 7.39 road ERA is obviously cause for concern.

Can Corbin keep Washington afloat or will Atlanta continue demolishing whatever opposition stands in its way?

Let's take a peak at the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find the value in this Nationals vs Braves matchup:

Nationals vs Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Nationals +1.5 (+110)
  • Braves -1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

  • Nationals: +215
  • Braves: -240

Total:

  • 9.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Nationals vs Braves Prediction and Pick

I know Patrick Corbin has been strong in his last two starts, but he's still Patrick Corbin. Dating back to last season, the Nationals are 4-14 in his previous 18 starts with 12 losses coming by multiple runs. Just look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and try not to laugh:

In Corbin's seven road starts this year, Washington is 1-6 while getting outscored by a combined total of 52-16. Okay, now you can laugh.

To make matters worse, the Nationals have lost eight of nine and scored more than three runs just twice in that span. I don't see their lineup finding success against Kyle Wright, who held his opponent to three or fewer runs in 13 of his 16 outings.

Wright has been a revelation for Atlanta's rotation and gets to face a Nationals lineup that ranks 26th in OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks.

Just go down the list and Washington seems in for disaster. Patrick Corbin is one of MLB's worst starting pitchers and he's backed up by one of the league's worst lineups, defenses, and bullpens. Meanwhile, the Braves are 15-2 in their last 17 as home favorites.

It's Patrick Corbin day and I'm ready to celebrate all weekend. Look for another dominant performance from Atlanta as they continue chasing down the Mets for the NL East division lead.

Pick: Braves -1.5 (-130)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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