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Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Sunday, July 10 (Bet on Big Day for Both Lineups)

By Matt De Saro

Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves / Brett Davis/GettyImages
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NL East rivals close out a three-game series today when the Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals at Truist Park.

Calling these two rivals might be giving the Nationals a bit too much credit as they have the worst record in the division and are more than 20 games off the lead. The Braves, on the other hand, trail the Mets by a couple of games for first place and outclass the Nationals from top to bottom.

Will a shaky pitching mismatch give this game away for Atlanta?

Here are the odds for this game from consensus sportsbooks.

Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Nationals: +1.5 (-120)
  • Braves: -1.5 (+100)

Moneyline:

  • Nationals: +155
  • Braves: -180

Total:

  • Total 9.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

While the Braves are by far the best team in the game, they won’t have their best arm on the mound today. Ian Anderson is shaping up to be a disaster this season after posting a 3.58 ERA in 24 starts last year. So far, in 16 appearances, Anderson holds a 5.09 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with 69 strikeouts in 81 ⅓ innings. He is coming off a solid outing against the Cardinals but also finished June with a 6.91 ERA. To make matters worse, Anderson struggles at home with a 5.61 ERA in seven starts at Truist Park. 

But, Anderson’s struggles pale in comparison to those of the Nationals’ starter, Paolo Espino. If you take a quick glance at his stats, you might think he’s in pretty good shape with a 3.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. And while that was true for a time, things have been going downhill over the last few weeks. It’s important to note that Espino hasn’t been a starter all year. This will be his 26th appearance of the year, but just his sixth start. His transition to the starting rotation was accompanied by this cold snap.

As a reliever, Espino faced 101 hitters this year with a batting average of .228 and an OPS of .574. But, as a starter, Espino faced 86 hitters with a BA of .279 and OPS of .876. Pretty big discrepancy and it explains clearly why you can’t trust his overall season numbers at this point. 

With the potential powder kegs on the hill today, I think a bet on the OVER is a smart move. While the Braves are a better team, anything can happen with Anderson on the mound and I can’t trust them to emerge victorious. 

Pick: OVER 9.5 Runs (-115)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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