Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, September 20 (Patrick Corbin, Hang in There Man)

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin / Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

Still just one game back, the surging Atlanta Braves are desperately trying to jump the New York Mets for the top spot in the division. In that effort, the Washington Nationals serve as a sort of trampoline. The Braves took the 5-2 win last night and now get to face perhaps the worst pitcher in all of baseball. 

Patrick Corbin makes his 30th start of the year for Washington and he is opposed by Charlie Morton for Atlanta. 

Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line and Total

Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Patrick Corbin should earn a medal or something for his work on the Nationals this year. Not because he’s been good, but because he has been so awful and yet has trotted out there every fifth day.

When he starts tonight he will tie for the league lead in starts, yet also has the highest ERA of any qualified pitcher by a full run. His 6.11 ERA is somehow way better than it could have been for him this season. On August 6, he hit a high water mark of 7.02, but has pitched well enough to still have an ERA a run worse than everyone else in the league. 

Patrick Corbin’s season must be what it felt like to be Mike Tyson’s sparring partner. Just get in the ring everyday and get your face smashed in fully aware you’ll have to do it again the next day and there was no chance you were ever going to win. The Nationals are 6-23 in his starts, he has a 6-18 record and in three starts against the Braves, he has a 9.88 ERA. 

Those three starts, he has pitched 13 innings and the Braves as a team have an OPS over 1.000. That is insane production off one pitcher and it is more than just one bad game. The run line is only 1.5, but they could move it to 4.5 and I think I’d still take the Braves. I’ll take them on the run line, but FanDuel has options for alternate lines and I like the Braves -2.5 at about even odds. 

PICK: Braves -1.5 (-160) or -2.5 (-104)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE