Nationals vs. Mets Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, October 4 (Fade the Mets After Blowing Division)

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20)
New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) / Larry Robinson-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve watched plenty of teams clinch the playoffs or clinch their division in the past week, but now it might be time to bring out the champagne for the Washington Nationals front office. With one more loss they will clinch the first-pick in the 2023 MLB draft. Oh, and the New York Mets just choked away the NL East and almost certainly have to play in a Wild Card series. 

Cory Abbott will try to finish off the abysmal season for the Nationals as he starts this first of a three-game series against Carlos Carrasco. 

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line and Total

Nationals vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

I do think there is something to the fact that the Mets just got swept by the Braves over the weekend and definitely come into this series with Washington licking their wounds. New York was in control of this division all year and in one weekend they watched that all slip away.

The team is still 98-61 and if the Braves do somehow get swept by the Marlins, then there is a chance for New York to take the division title right back, but they have to be down heading into this series. It’s only human to hang your head a little bit after that and maybe Washington takes advantage of that. 

The problem is, Cory Abott is not a good starting pitcher with a 5.11 ERA and a 6.30 fielding independent pitching. He is 0-4 and the Nationals are 3-12 in games that he has pitched. Eight of those games were starts, the other seven out of the bullpen. 

Carlos Carrasco is a good pitcher even though his ERA has started to creep up near the fours. The last time he faced Washington he didn’t make it out of the third inning before allowing five runs and in his last two starts he has allowed seven earned runs over seven innings. 

Carrasco hasn’t been as reliable and the Mets have to be down after this weekend. 

Pick: Nationals +1.5 (+122)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE