Nationals vs. Padres Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 21 (Fade Patrick Corbin Every Start)

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin.
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Patrick Corbin Day!

The Washington Nationals are sending the struggling lefty to the mound against another struggling lefty, San Diego Padres starter Sean Manaea (6-6, 4.83 ERA). 

The Nationals are a horrendous 4-20 in Corbin’s starts this season, but there is very little value on the Padres as massive favorites in this game. 

Let’s jump into the odds from WynnBET and make a pick: 

Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Nationals +1.5 (+112)
  • Padres -1.5 (-135)


  • Nationals: +240
  • Padres: -270


  • 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Nationals vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

I am going to fade Patrick Corbin every time he starts, as he has a 6.96 ERA this season and has allowed four or more runs in seven straight starts. 

Manaea has been equally bad as of late, posting a 6.87 ERA over his last eight starts and allowing opponents to hit .321/.378/.593 against him. 

So how should we bet on this matchup? Simply root for runs and take the OVER!

Both of these guys are going to struggle to work deep into the game, and if that’s the case we can expect plenty of runs to be scored early. Even though Washington’s offense is a question mark, Corbin could give up close to eight runs on his own, so I don’t mind trusting the OVER 8.5 .

In Corbin’s last six starts, there have been over 8.5 runs in five of them. At -105, I think we have some value here. 

Lean: OVER 8.5 (-105)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.