Navy vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 0

College football season is here and we get started in Dublin, Ireland with Notre Dame and Navy traveling across the world to meet on Saturday afternoon.

Notre Dame is going to welcome aboard transfer quarterback Sam Hartman, who joins after a storied career at Wake Forest, passing for nearly 13,000 yards. He will lead an Irish offense that will look to bounce back after a shaky 2022 season, the first under new head coach Marcus Freeman.

On a neutral field hours away from South Bend, Indiana, can the Irish hold up against a Navy team that also has some new faces in key places? The Midshipmen fired long time head coach Ken Niumatalolo and promoted defensive coordinator Brian Newberry and hired offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut from Kennesaw State to revitalize the Navy triple option.

How should we handicap this Week 0 matchup? Let's dive in:

Navy vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread and Total

Notre Dame vs. Navy Betting Trends

• Notre Dame went 3-5 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite last season
• Notre Dame went OVER in seven of 12 games last season
• Navy went 6-0 ATS as double digit underdogs last season
• Navy went UNDER in four of six games as double digit underdogs

Navy vs. Notre Dame How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, August 26, 2023
• Game Time: 2:30 PM EST
• Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland
• How to Watch (TV): NBC, Peacock
• Navy Record: 0-0
• Notre Dame Record: 0-0 

Navy vs. Notre Dame Key Players to Watch

Navy

Tedros Gleaton and all Navy quarterback options: Navy's quarterback rotation figures to be a moving target for the first few weeks, but as of now the starter listed is the sophomore Gleaton. He's projected to step in place of Tai Lavatai, who missed the end of last season with a knee injury and Xavier Arline, who finished the year as a starter, but is a limited passer.

Whoever is under center will take over a more unique offense under new offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut, who will still run the triple option, but with some more modern principles like the use of more tight end sets.

The Midshipmen do return four offensive linemen, so the hope is that with some more creativity in terms of play calling, the overall offense improves.

Notre Dame

Sam Hartman: Hartman was one of the most coveted players in the portal and gives instant credibility to a Notre Dame offense that struggled last season amidst quarterback injuries and ineffective play. The team was 57th in terms of EPA/Play last season behind a top 15 rush rate.

While Hartman has a strong arm, he passed for nearly 13,000 yards in nearly five season with the Demon Deacons, he will be transitioning from a pass-friendly offense to one that will have him under center more. Will new offensive coordinator Gerad Parker let him cook?

Navy vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

With the new clock rules in college football, mixed with the context of this game, I expect Navy to hang around in this game and cover the near-three touchdown spread.

With the game clock moving more and more, I expect this to play into Navy's hands, who prefer to keep the ball on the ground and limit the amount of possessions for both teams. Further, I believe that the Midshipmen should be in good shape despite rotating in both quarterbacks under new OC Chestnut, who built an elite offense at Kennesaw State using triple option principles.

Last season, Navy's offense was able to move on the Irish, scoring 32 points, actually outperforming the Irish on an EPA/Play basis. Navy's offense graded in the 78th percentile while Notre Dame's was in the 65th percentile.

While ND should be able to grind out a victory, I'm curious if the team is interested in running up the score. Instead, I see this team trying to work through growing pains of a QB switching schemes and a first time play caller in Parker getting comfortable as the offensive coordinator.

Navy's defense graded out top 30 in success rate last season and brings back more than two-thirds of its defense. Given the strong Navy front seven, mixed with likely rain in the Dublin forecast, I can see this game being played tight throuhgout.

Give me the points with the Midshipmen.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.