NBA Best Bets Today (Bucks Win Big vs. Kings)

Jan 11, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA;  Milwaukee Bucks guard Cameron Payne (15) reacts after
Jan 11, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Cameron Payne (15) reacts after / Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Our NBA betting expert, Peter Dewey, is off today so I'm subbing in. Unfortunately, this won't be a "Peter's Points" edition of NBA best bets, but I'll try to fill his shoes as I dabble in a few NBA plays for Sunday's action.

There are five games across the board today and I have plays locked in for three of them. No sense wasting any time, let's jump into them.

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NBA Bets Today

  • Miles Bridges OVER 21.5 points
  • Bucks -5 vs. Kings
  • Ivica Zubac UNDER 10.5 points

Hornets vs. Heat Best Bet

We're locking in a player prop for this Eastern Conference showdown and we're targeting Miles Bridges of the Hornets. The Heat are dealing with a ton of injuries today, which makes it difficult to handicap a side in this game, so we're going to target Miami where it's at its weakest and that is their interior defense.

The Heat enters the game ranking 27th in opponent two-point field goal percentage. Allowing opposing teams to shoot 56.5% from down low against them. They've been even worse in that area of late, allowing teams to shoot 59.2% from down low against them over their last three games.

That should open things up for Miles Bridges, who has surpassed this number in five of his last six games.

Kings vs. Bucks Best Bet

The thing to keep an eye on in this game is the three-point shooting of each team. They both rank inside the top six of the NBA in three-point shot rate, but it's the Bucks who have the far superior perimeter defense. In fact, the Bucks enter the game ranking second in opponent three-point shooting percentage, keeping teams shooting just 33.8% from beyond the arc.

Meanwhile, the Kings are 27th in that area, allowing teams to shoot 38.7% from three-point land. That could very well be the difference-maker in this interconference showdown.

I'll lay the five points with the home team.

Clippers vs. Timberwolves Best Bet

My reason for this bet is the complete opposite reason I took the OVER on Bridges' point total in Hornets vs. Heat. In that game, I was attacking the weak interior defense of the Heat, whereas in this one I'm going to back the strong interior defense of the Timberwolves.

Minnesota leads the NBA in opponent two-point field goal percentage, keeping teams shooting just 50.1% from down low. That mark has improved even further over their last three games to 42.4%, and overall at home this season that mark sits at 47.8%. All of that to say, the Clippers will need to attack the Timberwolves on the perimeter today which is going to leave their center, Ivica Zubac, with little work on the offensive side of the court.

I'll take the UNDER on his point total of 10.5.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!