Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Al Horford, Knicks and Grizzlies)

Happy December everyone!

This is one of the best months of the year in the NBA – especially since we get the NBA In-Season Tournament and Christmas Day games!

After not having a column yesterday (but still going 2-of-3 in our picks), I’m back for Friday’s slate with a three-stack of plays – one spread, one prop and a New York Knicks parlay – to bet. 

Let’s dive into the picks for Friday, Dec. 1!

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 68-50-2 (+11.06 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 693-607-11 (+51.01 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 (-108) vs. Dallas Mavericks
• Al Horford OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
• New York Knicks Same-Game Parlay (+100)

Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 (-108) vs. Dallas Mavericks

The Memphis Grizzlies have been terrible this season, winning just four games, but I think they have a chance to cover in Dallas on Friday night. 

The Mavericks won’t have Luka Doncic (personal reasons) in this game, and the team was just 5-11 straight up without him last season. 

Sure, Kyrie Irving is there to soften the blow, but the Mavericks didn’t exactly blow out Memphis earlier this season despite a 35-point triple double from Luka in that game. 

Take that away, and does Dallas really have the juice to win by seven or more? Maybe, but I’m still not buying this team after taking the UNDER on its win total before the season.

Al Horford OVER 19.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

I absolutely love this prop for Al Horford on Friday night with Kristaps Porzingis (calf) out for Boston and Joel Embiid (illness) questionable for Philadelphia. 

In three games without Porzingis this season, Horford is averaging 12.0 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. 

His PRA numbers in those games are as follows:

• vs. Philly: 25 PRA
• vs. Atlanta: 24 PRA
• vs. Chicago: 31 PRA

Horford has smashed this line (including against the Sixers already this season) in all three showings. 

I expect another big game for him – especially since he’s Boston’s best Embiid defender if the Sixers big man plays tonight. 

New York Knicks Same-Game Parlay (+100)

A little Knicks same-game parlay on the second night of a back-to-back against the Toronto Raptors? Why not!

• Jalen Brunson 30+ Points, Rebound and Assists
• Julius Randle 8+ Rebounds
• RJ Barrett 1+ 3-Pointers Made

Jalen Brunson 30+ Points, Rebound and Assists

Brunson scored 42 points in a win over the Detroit Pistons on Thursday night, and he’s scored 30 or more points in six games already this season. 

I love his PRA number at 30+, something that the lefty has hit in 13 of 18 games this season, including nine of his last 11. 

Julius Randle 8+ Rebounds

Randle has been elite on the glass this season, averaging 10.2 rebounds per game and securing at least eight boards in 13 of his 19 appearances this season. 

New York is also the best rebounding team in the NBA, and Toronto is 17th in opponent rebounds per game this season. 

RJ Barrett 1+ 3-Pointers Made

Barrett has made at least one shot from deep in all but one game this season. 

Overall, he’s shooting 40.9 percent from 3-point range on 5.1 attempts per game (he’s averaging 2.1 makes per game). This should be an easy clear for him against Toronto.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.