Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett)
By Peter Dewey
Happy Sunday ... or should I say Points Prop Day!
I have four different players that I'm backing to have big scoring games on Sunday's massive NBA slate, and we're back over .500 on the season in our picks.
Let's go back to the bread and butter with these props, including on for RJ Barrett at noon!
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 31-29-1 (-0.91 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 656-586-10 (+39.03 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- RJ Barrett OVER 19.5 Points (-120)
- Brandon Ingram OVER 25.5 Points (-105)
- Paul George OVER 21.5 Points (-125)
- Kawhi Leonard OVER 21.5 Points (-125)
RJ Barrett OVER 19.5 Points (-120)
An early afternoon prop? Why not!
New York Knicks wing RJ Barrett is off to a great start, averaging 22.3 points per game this season while shooting 47.4 percent from the field and 47.1 percent from 3-point range – by far the best mark of his career.
Barrett has 20+ points in all but two games this season, and in both of those games he played fewer than 30 minutes because the Knicks were either winning in a blowout or losing in a blowout. Still, he had 18 and 16 points in those contests.
I love Barrett’s role with the Knicks, as Tom Thibodeau has been using him to lead the second unit, pulling him after six minutes to then re-insert as the primary option in the second quarter and early fourth quarters.
That’s allowed Barrett to really hunt his shot, and he’s been great since returning from knee soreness, putting up 26 and 24 points in his last two games. Now, he takes on a Charlotte team that plays at a top 10 pace in the league and allows 122.4 points per game – the third most in the NBA.
Brandon Ingram OVER 25.5 Points (-105)
Brandon Ingram has been a usage monster with CJ McCollum (collapsed lung) out of the lineup, so I feel comfortable taking him on Sunday against a weak Dallas defense.
Dallas comes into this game with the No. 28 defensive rating in the NBA – and that’s after the team shut down the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night!
Ingram has taken 22, 25 and 24 shots in his last three games, scoring 22, 24 and 31 points. Yes, 25.5 is a higher number than I’d like, but given that usage it’s hard not to see a scenario where he’s pushing this number.
It’s also worth noting that he took just three combined free throws in the first two games before registering nine in his last matchup. If he can get to the line a few more times, I love his chances to go OVER.
Paul George OVER 21.5 Points (-125)
This is the first of two Los Angeles Clippers props that I love on Sunday.
The Clippers have struggled since adding James Harden, but I think they’re due for a bounce-back game – at home – against the 1-8 Memphis Grizzlies.
Paul George has taken 16 or more shots in all but two games this season, and I’m throwing out his clunker against Dallas since he played just 22:38 in that game.
PG still has five games with 22 or more points, and I think the Clippers lean on him and Kawhi Leonard – who I also like today – heavily to get back in the win column. This prop has dropped enough after a few bad George showings (against the New York Knicks and Dallas Mavericks) to go to the OVER against the No. 29 ranked defense in the NBA.
Kawhi Leonard OVER 21.5 Points (-125)
Let’s take the OVER on Kawhi as well, because there’s a chance both hit, and I think at least one will on Sunday.
Leonard had 26 points in 29 minutes against the Mavericks, and he’s cleared this number four times this season. I’d like to see Kawhi get a little more volume shooting the ball, but as I mentioned this Memphis defense is awful, ranking 29th in defensive rating and giving up 115.6 points per game.
The Clippers need to go back to what worked early in the season, and that was allowing George and Leonard to go out and win them games.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.