Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Derrick White, Devin Booker, Knicks)

There are four night games in the NBA on Thursday (the Brooklyn Nets and Cleveland Cavaliers play in Paris this afternoon), but I have five picks for the night games -- including one in each matchup.

The big matchup of the night is in the Eastern Conference with the Boston Celtics taking on the Milwaukee Bucks, and the Celtics have a clean injury report (outside of Al Horford) on the second night of a back-to-back.

In the Western Conference, the Phoenix Suns take on the Los Angeles Lakers for the fourth time this season, so we'll see the Big 3 take on LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Find out how I'm betting these games, and more, below!

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 141-123-6 (+1.15 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 766-681-15 (+41.09 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• New York Knicks -4 (-108) vs. Dallas Mavericks
• Donte DiVincenzo OVER 3.5 First Quarter Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Jerami Grant OVER 18.5 Points (-120)
• Derrick White OVER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
• Devin Booker UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-110)

New York Knicks -4 (-108) vs. Dallas Mavericks

The New York Knicks have not lost a game since acquiring OG Anunoby, and now they get to take on the Dallas Mavericks, who won’t have Luka Doncic (ankle) tonight. 

Dallas is just 1-3 without Doncic this season, and the team is 6-14 since the start of last season when the All-NBA star sits out. 

I love that for a Knicks team that is 6-2 against the spread as a road favorite this season (winning those games by an average margin of 10.1 points per game) and currently has the best defensive rating in the NBA since making the Anunoby trade. 

While Dallas did beat a terrible Portland team without Doncic, it lost every other game without him by eight or more points (against Memphis, Houston and Minnesota). 

Give me the Knicks to win and cover in Jalen Brunson’s return to Dallas. 

Donte DiVincenzo OVER 3.5 First Quarter Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

This is a small little prop I’m dropping on this Knicks game, as Donte DiVincenzo has been terrific in the first quarter since entering the starting lineup. 

Over his last 15 games (all starts), DiVincenzo is averaging 5.1 points in 8.2 first quarter minutes per game. He’s taking 3.3 shots and 2.5 3-point attempts in first quarters over that stretch, shooting the 3 at a 55.3 percent clip. 

All it takes is two made buckets for DiVincenzo to go OVER this number, which he should hit against a Dallas team that ranks 20th in the league in 3-pointers allowed per game. 

Jerami Grant OVER 18.5 Points (-120)

I hit this prop earlier this week, and I’m back on Jerami Grant against an OKC team that is playing the second night of a back-to-back and gave up 120 points to Miami on Wednesday. 

Grant is averaging 21.8 points per game, and he’s cleared 18.5 points in back-to-back contests after a small cold stretch. Even in a blowout loss to the Knicks on Tuesday, Grant scored 21 points in less than 28 minutes. 

He’s shot too well (46.1 percent from the field, 41.7 percent from 3) on 16.2 shots per game for me to pass on this prop. 

Derrick White OVER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)

This is a buy-low chance on Derrick White, who has not shot the ball well as of late for Boston. With Al Horford out, White and the rest of Boston’s starters should see even more run against Milwaukee. 

White is averaging 16.2 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game on the season, clearing 23.5 PRA in 16 of his last 23 games. Usually, White has had slightly higher prop numbers than Jrue Holiday, but they’re both at 23.5 PRA tonight. 

I’ll take the value on White, who is due for a bounce-back shooting night after 3-for-11 and 4-for-16 shooting performances. 

Devin Booker UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-110)

Back to the well, fading Devin Booker, who hasn’t grabbed a rebound for Phoenix in back-to-back games, going under 4.5 boards in 11 of his last 13 games. 

Over that stretch, Booker is averaging just 3.3 boards per game, and his season-long average has dipped to just 4.8 per game. 

The Lakers aren’t the best rebounding team, but I expect this game to be slowed down compared to most Lakers games, as Phoenix ranks 28th in the NBA in pace. 

This season, Booker is averaging 9.5 rebound chances per game, but that number has dipped all the way down to 7.4 over his last 15 games. I can’t take the OVER here. Oddsmakers are failing to adjust to this cold stretch.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.