Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jalen Brunson, Keldon Johnson)

Monday's NBA action should bring plenty of exciting matchups, but I'm narrowing it down to just three for my best bets on Nov. 20.

We're starting in the New York Knicks-Minnesota Timberwolves game where the Knicks are looking to prove that they can hang with one of the NBA's elite defenses. There is a prop that I love in that matchup.

I have another prop in the San Antonio Spurs-Los Angeles Clippers game, as well as a spread pick for the standalone matchup between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors tonight.

Over the last six days, these NBA best bets have gone 13-6, pushing us to almost +2 units on the season. Let's dive into the plays for Monday -- and keep the momentum going!

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 47-41-1 (+1.72 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 672-598-10 (+41.66 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Jalen Brunson OVER 23.5 Points (-110)
• Houston Rockets +7 (-110) vs. Golden State Warriors
• Keldon Johnson OVER 17.5 Points

Jalen Brunson OVER 23.5 Points (-110)

Jalen Brunson is going OFF lately for the New York Knicks, so I am shocked to see his points prop all the way down at 23.5 – even against an elite defense. Minnesota comes into this game with the No. 3 defensive rating in the NBA. 

Brunson has back-to-back 32-point games, and he’s scored 24 or more points in five of his last six matchups. 

The star guard is also getting a ton of usage, taking 19 or more shots in each of the games where he cleared this number. It’s hard to ask for much more when looking at a points prop in the low 20s, and Brunson has also hit the 3 at a crazy rate – shooting 47.7 percent from beyond the arc this season. 

I love taking the Knicks point guard at this number regardless of the defense the team is facing. 

Houston Rockets +7 (-110) vs. Golden State Warriors

Houston is one of the best teams against the spread this season, going 7-3-1 through its first 11 games. 

The reason? The Rockets are the No. 4 defense in the NBA this season, which could be huge against a Golden State team that hasn’t gotten consistent scoring out of anyone but Steph Curry this season. 

The Golden State Warriors are just 19th in the NBA in net rating, and they’ve actually struggled a lot at home, going 1-6 in seven games. The team has shot the ball horribly (26th in effective field goal percentage) and that’s with Curry shooting a blistering 44.7 percent from beyond the arc. 

I don’t think Houston should be this big of an underdog in this matchup, so I’ll gladly take the seven points with the Warriors reeling. 

Keldon Johnson OVER 17.5 Points

It has been an up-and-down season for Keldon Johnson, who has cleared 17.5 points in six of his 12 games while averaging 16.3 points per game for the season. 

So, why back him here?

Well, with Devin Vassell (doubtful) likely to miss this game for the Spurs, Johnson should see a bigger offensive role against the Los Angeles Clippers. 

In four games without Vassell this season, Johnson has averaged 21.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, putting up at least 16 points in each matchup. For his career, Johnson averages 20.6 points per game in 51 games without Vassell in the lineup. 

I expect the Spurs (fourth in pace) to push the ball against the Clippers tonight, which should give Johnson plenty of chances to go OVER this prop. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.