Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo)

Sunday’s NBA slate features a few early games, and there are a lot of playoff implications on the line with the final week of the regular season upon us.

Despite that, there are also a lot of injury concerns with players listed as questionable, out or on the second night of a back-to-back, which makes this a tricky slate to bet on.

I’ve settled on three player props for teams that have something on the line on Sunday as my best bets. Let's dive in:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 314-292-13 (+0.03 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 939-850-21 (+39.91 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 28.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Bam Adebayo OVER 10.5 Rebounds (+105) – 0.5 unit
• Chris Paul UNDER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-140) – 0.5 unit

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 28.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

This season, Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo has given the New York Knicks problems, scoring 32, 28 and 35 points in his last three matchups against them. 

Those numbers could go up, as this will be the first time this season that the Knicks face Milwaukee without Julius Randle in the lineup (out for season with a shoulder injury). 

Even with OG Anunoby in the fold, Giannis has a massive size advantage over the Knicks’ top defenders (OG and Josh Hart), and he’s a tough matchup on the perimeter for big men Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson. 

If he can suit up (listed as questionable) – and I’d expect him to with the No. 2 seed in jeopardy – Giannis should be in line for a big scoring game. It’s rare that we get his prop number below his season average of 30.7 points per game, so I’ll gladly take the OVER. 

Bam Adebayo OVER 10.5 Rebounds (+105) – 0.5 unit

This is a favorable matchup for Miami Heat big man Bam Adebayo, who is averaging 10.7 rebounds per game on the season and has cleared 10.5 rebounds in eight of his last 12 games, averaging 12.1 rebounds per game over that stretch. 

Indiana plays uptempo basketball, ranking second in the NBA in pace, which should mean there will be plenty of chances to hit the glass in this one. Plus, the Pacers rank just 24th in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season. 

Given how badly the Heat need this game, I’d expect to see plenty of minutes for the All-Star center, and I think he’s undervalued sitting at plus money to grab 11 boards. 

Chris Paul UNDER 27.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-140) – 0.5 unit

Golden State Warriors star Steph Curry is out (rest) in this game, but I’m still going to fade veteran Chris Paul on Sunday.

While the Warriors could move up from the No. 10 seed, they’re likely stuck in that spot this postseason, which is why Curry is getting the night off before the entire NBA is off on Monday. 

Paul has made five appearances without Steph in the lineup this season, averaging 13.6 points, 6.6 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game, which is short of this number.

He’s gone UNDER 27.5 points, rebounds and assists in four of those five games, putting up 24, 26, 23, 36 and 17 PRA.

Paul nearly had a triple-double in the 36 PRA game, but I don’t think Golden State will need him as much tonight against a Utah team that has mailed the season in, losing 11 straight games.

Go UNDER for CP3 tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.