Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jalen Brunson, Kevin Durant)

We're on a nice 8-2 run over the last three days in our NBA best bets, and before the March Madness action gets going on Thursday, I encourage to lock in for tonight's NBA plays as well.

Tonight, I'm going back to the well with yet another big favorite (we've had three cover over the last two days for us), and I have player props for both Jalen Brunson and Kevin Durant.

Can we pick up the second sweep of the week?

Let's dive into tonight's plays:

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 286-262-13 (+2.58 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 911-820-21 (+42.52 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Jalen Brunson OVER 28.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Sacramento Kings -11.5 (-108) vs. Washington Wizards – 0.5 unit
• Kevin Durant OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

Jalen Brunson OVER 28.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

For those of you who know my loyalty to the New York Knicks, this may seem like a homer pick in a tough environment in Denver. 

I assure you it is not. 

Jalen Brunson is averaging 40.3 points per game over his last three contests, taking 25 or more shots in each of them. His usage is what is driving this play, as Brunson has taken 20 or more shots in 10 of his last 13 games that he’s finished. Even if you throw in the Cavs game where he was injured less than a minute in, Brunson is averaging 21.8 shots per game over his last 14 games. 

Earlier this season, Brunson torched Denver for 21 points (on 7-for-10 shooting) in 26 minutes in a 38-point win. I don’t think the Knicks will find themselves in that spot again, but the team should be able to hang with Denver – even on the road. 

Brunson will have to play well for New York to have a chance, and I expect him to hunt shots early and often again tonight. 

Sacramento Kings -11.5 (-108) vs. Washington Wizards – 0.5 unit

Back to the well we go with the Sacramento Kings after they dominated the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night, earning the cover as 11-point favorites. 

Tonight, the Kings get a favorable matchup against a Washington team that has been brutal as a home underdog and won’t have Bilal Coulibaly, Tyus Jones and potentially Deni Avdija (questionable) in this game. 

Here are a few key trends fueling this wager: 

• The Kings are 9-6-1 against the spread as road favorites
• The Wizards are 8-19 against the spread as home dogs
• Washington has lost five straight games by 12 or more points, including one to Memphis

Sacramento should still play all of its key players in a must-win matchup for the team’s chances of avoiding the play-in tournament in the West. Lay the points here. 

Kevin Durant OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

Kevin Durant’s shot usage has fluctuated as of late with Bradley Beal and Devin Booker both healthy, so I’m looking to his rebounds prop tonight as one of my favorite plays. 

Over his last 10 games, Durant has cleared this total seven times despite only averaging 6.9 rebounds per game over that stretch. Earlier this season against Atlanta, KD picked up eight boards, and I think he can get over this line on Thursday. 

Durant is averaging nearly one more rebound chance (11.1) per game compared to his season average (10.2) in his last 10 games, and he should get a solid dosage of minutes – even on the second night of a back-to-back. 

This is my favorite play for the Suns star, even with his points prop down to 24.5.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.