Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jalen Brunson, Nikola Jokic, Celtics)
By Peter Dewey
Thursday in the NBA features several terrific matchups, and I have a loaded slate -- filled with prop bets -- to wager on the seven games on Jan. 25.
Tonight, there are games between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, New York Knicks and Denver Nuggets, Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors, and more, arguably one of the best days of the season we've had in a long time.
The last few days have been a rousing success in our NBA best bets -- going 11-5 over that stretch to push closer back to in the green on the season. A sweep tonight would do that, but we'll need several players -- and teams -- to come through.
Let's dive into the action for Jan. 25:
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 173-155-7 (-4.01 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 798-713-16 (+35.93 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter ML (-166) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
- Jalen Brunson OVER 28.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
- Nikola Jokic OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-110)
- Nikola Jokic 15+ Rebounds (+300) – 0.5 unit
- OG Anunoby OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit
- Boston Celtics -8 (-112) vs. Miami Heat
- Alex Caruso OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unit
Philadelphia 76ers First Quarter ML (-166) vs. Indiana Pacers – 0.5 unit
I love this play for the Philadelphia 76ers, as this is one sneaky way to back Joel Embiid when you know he’s going to be in the game.
Embiid’s usual rotation is to play the entire first quarter (where he is the NBA’s leading scorer). Indiana is at home in this game, but the team ranks just 19th in the NBA in first-quarter net rating at minus-2.4.
The Sixers are slightly better, ranking 13th at plus-1.3. I’ll trust Philly to lead after 12 minutes of Embiid on Thursday night.
Plus, Tyrese Haliburton is out tonight, and that’s going to change the Indiana offense a lot, as the team is averaging nine fewer points per game in the 10 matchups the All-Star guard has missed this season.
Jalen Brunson OVER 28.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
Jalen Brunson’s All-Star campaign continues tonight for New York. The Knicks guard is making a serious case for an All-Star nod in his last five games, scoring 30 in each of them.
Brunson has been relied on heavily since the team traded away RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, averaging 29.0 points on 20.9 shots per game in 10 contests.
The lefty is taking 7.9 3s per game over that stretch as well while playing nearly 36 minutes per night. That usage is hard to deny, and even against a good Denver team, Brunson is going to be called upon to carry the Knicks.
I’ll back the Knicks point guard to push another 30-point game.
Nikola Jokic OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-110)
This is a dream matchup for Nikola Jokic if Knicks center Hartenstein (questionable, ankle) can’t go.
The Knicks allowed 17 rebounds to Nicolas Claxton in their last game, and the team saw Jericho Sims – who started for Hartenstein – grab just four rebounds. The Knicks’ leading rebounders against Brooklyn were Julius Randle (nine rebounds) and Precious Achiuwa (nine rebounds).
Jokic has grabbed 12 or more boards in five straight games, averaging 12.0 per game on the season. I also like a Jokic ladder prop…
Nikola Jokic 15+ Rebounds (+300) – 0.5 unit
While Jokic has grabbed 15 or more boards just nine times in 44 games, this is a matchup that could happen. If Hartenstein sits – I’m hedging that he will – Jokic should own the Knicks on the glass.
New York won’t ask Jokic to guard a player on the perimeter much, as the team plays traditional centers, which should position him well on the defensive glass. Jokic is averaging 18.7 rebound chances per game, so this is certainly possible tonight.
OG Anunoby OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit
This is another great play if Hartenstein sits, as OG Anunoby has become a bigger player on the glass for the Knicks as of late.
He’s grabbed at least five boards in six of his last seven games, and the Knicks forward has been on the floor for huge minutes since joining the team – playing 36.5 minutes per game.
Since coming to New York, Anunoby is averaging 10.0 rebound chances per game. Asking him to grab five tonight isn’t too crazy – regardless of what the team’s lineup looks like.
Boston Celtics -8 (-112) vs. Miami Heat
Boston started the year off on a bad note on the road, but the team has been dominant as a road favorite over its last 10 games in that spot, going 7-3 ATS.
I think that continues in this matchup.
This is the second game of a back-to-back for Miami, and the team lost to the Memphis Grizzlies – one of the league’s worst teams – despite Jaren Jackson Jr. shooting 5-for-21 from the field.
The Heat can’t score the ball right now, averaging the fewest points per game in the NBA over its last four games.
Miami is just 1-3-1 against the spread on the second night of back-to-backs this season.
I’ll take a rested Boston team that has a lethal offensive attack (third in offensive rating) to cover the number in Miami.
Alex Caruso OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unit
A little revenge game for Alex Caruso against the Los Angeles Lakers?
The Chicago Bulls guard is shooting the ball at a high clip this season – 42.0 percent from 3 – and he’s made at least two 3-pointers in seven straight games.
If you extend this back to 12 games, Caruso has multiple 3-point shots made in 10 of them, averaging 2.3 makes on 6.1 attempts per game over that stretch.
If he keeps shooting the 3 at this high of a volume, Caruso is a lock to go OVER this number. The Lakers are allowing the most opponent 3-pointers made per game this season.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.