Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jalen Brunson, Nuggets-Timberwolves)

The Boston Celtics got us back on track on Saturday, smashing another first half bet in their win over the Cleveland Cavaliers, and now the focus of the NBA turns to two critical Game 4 matchups on Sunday. 

The New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers have played three close games to open this series, but Indiana is favored to win Game 4 and even the series on Sunday. I’m eyeing a pair of scoring prop bets in that matchup. 

In the Western Conference, the defending champion Denver Nuggets are hoping to even their series – on the road – against the Minnesota Timberwolves after stealing Game 3 on Friday night. 

Can they make it happen? I have a pick for a side in that matchup to give us three NBA Best Bets on Sunday!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 353-357-13 (-4.75 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 978-915-21 (+35.19 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Pascal Siakam OVER 21.5 Points (-142) – 0.5 unit
• Jalen Brunson OVER 32.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Denver Nuggets +2.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 0.5 unit

Pascal Siakam OVER 21.5 Points (-142) – 0.5 unit

Pascal Siakam played just over 30 minutes in Game 3 due to foul trouble, but he dominated the Knicks in their first game in this series without Anunoby, scoring 26 points on 9-of-14 shooting.

To put it simply, Precious Achiuwa was not quick enough to handle Siakam, and Josh Hart’s lack of size was exposed on post ups.

Siakam also went to the line for nine free throws in Game 3, making seven of them. I expect the Pacers to look to exploit this matchup again in Game 4. 

Jalen Brunson OVER 32.5 Points (-115) – 0.5 unit

Jalen Brunson’s points prop had soared as high as 37.5 after Game 1 of this series, but a foot injury has clearly limited him in the last two games.

Still, Brunson played over 38 minutes in Game 3 and took 26 shots, a sign that he’s going to have plenty of usage again in Game 4. 

This postseason, the All-Star guard is averaging 34.6 points per game on 27.2 shot attempts. I expect him to bounce back after one of his worst games of this run for New York.

Denver Nuggets +2.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves – 0.5 unit

I believe something in this series shifted in Game 3. 

If you look at the first two games, Denver could not find a rhythm offensively – partially due to Jamal Murray’s struggles – but it did show up on the defensive end, allowing just 106 points in both games. 

That came with a lot of missed shots, a lot of transition chances for the Wolves and a lot of Denver turnovers. 

So, what happened in Game 3 when the Denver offense was humming? The Wolves scored just 90 points. 

Now, I’m not saying that’s going to happen again, but the Nuggets’ offense is their best defense right now, because Minnesota has not been dominant in the half court in this series. In Game 2 alone, Minnesota had 18 fast break points and forced 19 turnovers. 

If Denver makes this game a slowed down, half-court battle, I think it can steal another road win. It’s also worth noting that Minnesota is just 16-22-2 against the spread when favored at home this season.

Give me the Nuggets to cover and potentially even this series.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.