It's a prop night!
I have five different prop bet plays that I'm eyeing in the NBA on Thursday, including four player props.
This isn't the biggest slate in the world, but the Denver Nuggets-Brooklyn Nets game has a few intriguing lines, leading to yours truly placing three wagers on that contest alone.
We've been middling in our performance this week, but still pushing +5 units on the season. Who says we can't have a big Thursday?
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Let's break down each of these props for the Thursday night action on the NBA:
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 84-69-3 (+4.45 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 709-627-12 (+44.39 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- Jamal Murray OVER 20.5 Points (-125)
- Rudy Gobert OVER 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-125)
- Cam Thomas OVER 21.5 Points and Assists (-140)
- Denver Nuggets First Quarter -2.5 (-115) vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Malik Monk OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+105)
Jamal Murray OVER 20.5 Points (-125)
Jamal Murray cleared his points prop for us back on Monday night, and I’m going back to the well on Thursday.
The Nuggets guard sat out of the second night of a back-to-back on Tuesday, so he should be fresh for this game against Brooklyn – a good sign for Denver since Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (concussion) has been ruled out.
Since coming back from an injury, Murray has scored 16, 23, 21 and 29 points in four games. He needed just 28:58 of playing time against Atlanta to shoot 12-for-15 on his way to a 29-point game in his last outing.
Now, he gets a Brooklyn team that is just 19th in the NBA in defensive rating. I love Murray to clear this prop until oddsmakers start to adjust his points total.
Rudy Gobert OVER 26.5 Points and Rebounds (-125)
You can’t script a matchup any better for Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert when it comes to doing what he does best on the basketball court.
The Dallas Mavericks are not a big-heavy team, and that should allow Gobert to eat down low.
Gobert is averaging 13.3 points and 12.2 rebounds per game, and those numbers should increase against a Dallas team that ranks 26th in the NBA in points in the paint allowed per game (53.4) and 28th in rebounding percentage (47.7 percent).
Gobert has cleared 26.5 points and rebounds in five of his last six games. He’s only done that five other times all season, so that is the risk we’re running with this play. Still, Gobert has two 20-rebound games over this six-game stretch, which almost guarantees that he’ll clear this number.
I think he’s worth a shot in this prop against a Dallas team that lacks bigs after rookie Dereck Lively II.
Cam Thomas OVER 21.5 Points and Assists (-140)
Buyer Beware: We are returning to Cam Thomas props.
I say this because earlier this month, Thomas burned us on a night I took his points prop, scoring just six points. It was an ugly game, but he’s rebounded nicely since.
Thomas has cleared 21.5 points and assists in nine of his 14 games this season, including two games where he landed on exactly 21.
I think in this matchup he may be underrated as a passer too (2.4 assists per game for the season) when it comes to this prop. Thomas’ points prop is set at 19.5, a sign that oddsmakers expect him to get two or fewer assists.
After the dud game where he scored just six points on Dec. 6, Thomas has responded with three solid outings:
- vs. Washington: 17 points, four assists
- vs. Sacramento: 20 points, two assists
- vs. Phoenix: 24 points, four assists
He’s not shooting the ball well over this stretch, but he’s taken at least 17 shots in all of those games. I love the volume more than the output, so I’ll take him to go OVER in a game where the Nets need all the scoring they can get.
Denver Nuggets First Quarter -2.5 (-115) vs. Brooklyn Nets
You won’t find a better first quarter team at home than the Denver Nuggets – that’s just a fact.
Playing in Denver is tough enough with the altitude change for teams, but the Nuggets also get off to great starts, posting a net rating of +25.7 (!!) in the first quarter at home this season. Even a team like Brooklyn, which has been solid in the first quarter this season, is going to have a hard time keeping up.
The Nets rank 10th in the league in net rating in the opening period on the road, but that comes in at -0.9. That’s a +26.6 difference in favor of Denver…
Denver is averaging 30.9 points per game in the first quarter at home, and with Murray back in the lineup after missing Tuesday’s game, I’d be shocked if Denver didn’t get off to a strong start in this one.
Malik Monk OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+105)
We’re closing out the night with Sacramento Kings guard Malik Monk, who has shot the 3 at a high level all season long.
This is a favorable matchup, as the Oklahoma City Thunder rank 19th in the NBA this season in opponent 3-pointers made per game.
Since Nov. 24 (an eight-game stretch), Monk has made at least two shots from deep in every game, and he’s shooting 49.1 percent from 3. He’s averaging 3.3 made 3s on 6.6 attempts per game in those eight matchups.
On the season, Monk is shooting an impressive 43.1 percent from deep. As long as the opportunities are there – and they have been as of late – Monk is a terrific bet at plus money to go OVER this number.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.