Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jimmy Butler, Wemby, Jalen Brunson)
By Peter Dewey
It's a prop night, and one that I think can get us back on track after the toughest betting month of the season.
I've been struggling in January, so I'm sticking to a bunch of half-unit plays on Monday night, but with 12 games in action, we're placing 10 bets across the slate.
There are a few matchups that I didn't hit, but we have seven player props, a game prop and two spreads to wager on for Monday, Jan. 29:
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NBA Best Bets Record to Date
- 2023-24 season record: 179-168-7 (-6.60 units)
- Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 804-726-16 (+33.34 units)
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
NBA Best Bets Today
- Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unit
- Jimmy Butler OVER 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit
- Collin Sexton OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+105) – 0.5 unit
- Austin Reaves OVER 19.5 Points and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
- Keldon Johnson OVER 5.5 Rebounds (+114) – 0.5 unit
- Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-145) – 0.5 unit
- Malik Monk OVER 12.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
- Denver Nuggets 1Q Moneyline vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-142) – 0.5 unit
- Denver Nuggets -4 (-115) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit
- Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 (-110) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit
Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-140) – 0.5 unit
This is the Jalen Brunson game for the New York Knicks. Brunson hasn’t had a ton of success against the Charlotte Hornets (mainly because of blowouts this season), but he’s going to have a huge workload with Julius Randle sidelined tonight and likely for the next few weeks.
Brunson has shot 8-for-17 from beyond the arc in three games against Charlotte, hitting at least two shots from deep in all three games.
Now, we’re just asking him to hit three on Monday.
Brunson is shooting a career-high 42.6 percent from 3-point range this season, and he’s not facing the worst 3-point defense in the NBA. Charlotte allows opponents to shoot 40.1 percent from 3-point range this season (30th in the league), and they rank 26th in opponent 3s per game.
Brunson should see increased volume from everywhere without Randle, and he’s made three or more shots from deep in six of his last 11 games.
Jimmy Butler OVER 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit
Jimmy Butler showed some more aggression on Saturday against the New York Knicks, taking 20 shots and scoring 28 points to go with eight rebounds.
The Miami Heat need him to be that aggressive if they’re going to snap this six-game losing streak.
Butler is averaging just 5.0 rebounds per game this season, which is way down from his three previous seasons (5.9, 5.9 and 6.9). I think he’s due for some positive regression in that category, and if he goes anywhere near 20 shot attempts tonight, he should clear this prop with ease.
Collin Sexton OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (+105) – 0.5 unit
Collin Sexton is set at plus money to make multiple shots from beyond the arc tonight against a Brooklyn Nets team that allows 13.6 3-pointers per game (bottom 10 in the league) and allows opponents to shoot 38.0 percent from 3 (25th in the league) this season.
Sexton has made multiple 3-point shots in eight of his last 10 games, attempting at least four shots from deep in eight of those matchups.
On the season, he’s shooting 38.2 percent from 3-point range. If Sexton can continue to shoot the 3 at volume, he’s a great plus money bet tonight.
Austin Reaves OVER 19.5 Points and Assists (-125) – 0.5 unit
Austin Reaves’ points prop is a little lower than I’d expect tonight, especially since he’s put up 18 and 17 points in his last two meetings against Houston.
Reaves is also an underrated passer this season, averaging 5.2 assists per game and posting at least five dimes in six of his last seven games.
On the season, the Lakers guard has cleared 19.5 points and assists in 28 of 47 games, averaging 20.3 points and assists per game. With the Lakers listing LeBron James and Anthony Davis as questionable and this being the first game of a back-to-back, don’t be shocked if Reaves is asked to handle more on offense tonight.
Keldon Johnson OVER 5.5 Rebounds (+114) – 0.5 unit
We’re going full fade of the Washington Wizards and their NBA-worst rebounding percentage tonight.
Washington ranks 30th in the NBA in rebounding percentage at 44.9 percent, and the team allowed nine boards to Johnson in a meeting earlier this month.
The Spurs forward has been hitting the glass at a high rate recently, posting four games in his last eight over this number, including a 16-rebound game against Portland.
Johnson is averaging 5.9 boards per game on the season and 10.7 rebound chances over his last 10 games. He’s a solid bet against a weak Washington frontcourt.
Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-145) – 0.5 unit
This is a dream matchup for Victor Wembanyama against Washington, so I’m willing to lay the juice on this prop.
Washington has allowed some huge rebounding performances against them as of late. Just take a look at some of the starting bigs against the Wizards in their last five games (not against San Antonio):
- Jalen Duren: 18 rebounds
- John Collins: 16 rebounds
- Nikola Jokic: 12 rebounds
- Isaiah Hartenstein: 17 rebounds
- Jalen Duren (again): 19 rebounds
Wemby did have just eight boards in his meeting with Washington, but he’s posted three straight games with double-digit boards as the Spurs start to move him off of a minutes limit. He’s also averaging nearly 16 rebound chances per game in his last 10 games.
I love him to control the glass tonight.
Malik Monk OVER 12.5 Points (-125) – 0.5 unit
I’m buying low on Malik Monk, who usually has a points prop of around 14.5 or 15.5 points since he’s averaging 14.7 points per game this season.
Monk has cleared this total just once in his last four games, but he hasn’t registered a single matchup with double-digit shot attempts over that stretch.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see that change tonight against a Memphis team that Monk scored 27 points against on New Year’s Eve.
This season, the Sacramento Kings’ Sixth Man of the Year candidate has scored 13 or more points in 25 of his 43 games. I’m banking on Monk’s shot attempts rising after a few down games.
Denver Nuggets 1Q Moneyline vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-142) – 0.5 unit
The Denver Nuggets have the best first quarter net rating at home in the NBA this season at +22.8.
This is a bet that I place often, and I’m going back to the well against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have struggled early on in games on the road.
The Bucks are just 22nd in the NBA in first quarter net rating on the road at -10.4. Yikes.
With both teams sporting fairly clean injury reports, I lean with the Nuggets here. I am interested to see what Doc Rivers does with his rotation, but it’s become commonplace for Giannis Antetokounmpo to sit for a stretch in the first quarter, while Michael Malone usually runs Nikola Jokic for at least 9-10 minutes.
That could give the Nuggets the edge tonight.
Denver Nuggets -4 (-115) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit
Sticking with the Nuggets, I love them in the full game as well.
The Bucks are entering a new era with Rivers at the helm, but the team is one of the worst squads in the NBA to bet on when on the road, going just 8-12 against the spread this season.
Milwaukee’s defense is a massive concern when facing an offense like Denver’s, and the Nuggets did dominate the Bucks in Denver last season.
With this spread sitting at just four points, I have a hard time backing the Bucks to cover when Denver is 18-4 straight up at home with an average margin of victory of 9.8 points per game.
Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 (-110) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit
Joel Embiid is officially out for the Philadelphia 76ers on Monday night, and I think that gives the Portland Trail Blazers some value on the second night of a back-to-back.
Portland is a league best 6-2 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season, and the team has been impressive as of late, covering in five of its last eight games.
With the only key rotation players on the injury report for Portland being Malcolm Brogdon (questionable) and Shaedon Sharpe (out), I think Portland can keep this game within double digits.
Plus, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are both still listed as questionable for Philly. The Sixers are just 3-8 straight up without Joel Embiid in the 2023-24 season. I don’t think they cover this spread in Portland.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.