Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for John Collins, Four Spread Picks)

The NBA trade deadline has shaken up some of the league's contending rosters, and we're attempting to navigate that on a loaded Thursday night slate in the Association.

Wednesday's NBA action could not have gone worse, bringing a dreaded reverse sweep with a terrible beat on our Victor Wembanyama prop after he need just a couple PRA in the fourth quarter to go OVER.

That doesn't mean we're going to stop though -- not even for the trade deadline. It's day 103 of NBA action, and I'm locked and loaded with several plays for tonight's slate:

If you’re looking to bet on any game in the NBA tonight, FanDuel Sportsbook has an amazing promotional offer. New users who sign up with the link below and wager $5 will receive $200 in bonus bets -- if their bet wins.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 202-188-8 (-3.99 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 827-746-17 (+35.95 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Golden State Warriors +6.5 (-112) vs. Indiana Pacers
• Dallas Mavericks -5 (-105) vs. New York Knicks
• Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 (-110) vs. Brooklyn Nets
• Chicago Bulls -6 (-112) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
• John Collins OVER 21.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)

Golden State Warriors +6.5 (-112) vs. Indiana Pacers

As long as Golden State doesn't make a major trade at the deadline – and as of this writing it hasn’t, I think the team is a great bet against the Indiana Pacers tonight. 

This is a prime spot for Golden State to cover, as it’s been great on the road (9-4 ATS as road underdog) and solid on the second night of back-to-backs (4-4 ATS). 

After the Warriors’ starters were able to rest late on Wednesday, I doubt the team sits out any key players for rest – listing Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins as probable –  especially since Golden State needs every game it can get to make the playoffs this season. 

As for Indiana, the Pacers are just 7-8-1 ATS as home favorites, and they’ve covered just twice in five games since Tyrese Haliburton returned on a minutes limit. If Hali doesn't play his usual role tonight, the Pacers may not be able to build a big enough lead to beat Golden State by seven or more. 

Dallas Mavericks -5 (-105) vs. New York Knicks

I won’t be winning any CLV trophies for this one. 

I bet Dallas this morning, thinking that Jalen Brunson would be ruled out for the New York Knicks. The line has since moved to Dallas -3.5. 

Still, the Knicks made a major trade on Thursday, giving them less depth than usual with all the injuries they are facing. Brunson is also still questionable. 

Dallas has been elite as a road favorite, going 2-0 ATS this week and 10-2 ATS overall in the 2023-24 season. Even though the Knicks are 3-1-1 ATS as home dogs, this could be a much different New York team than the one we’re used to seeing if Brunson sits.

In the first meeting between these teams in Dallas, the Mavs shot the lights out without Doncic to escape with a win. 

Doncic playing in this game should be the edge to push Dallas over the top.

Cleveland Cavaliers -6.5 (-110) vs. Brooklyn Nets

I’m not sold on the Brooklyn Nets in this game, especially after the team moved Royce O’Neale and Spencer Dinwiddie ahead of the deadline (with possibly more to come).

Brooklyn is just 6-8-2 against the spread as a home underdog this season, and the Cavs enter this game as the hottest team in the NBA, ranking No. 1 in net rating over their last 10 games. 

Cleveland has also won seven in a row. 

While the Cavs failed to cover on Wednesday, the team is still a respectable 5-5-1 ATS as a road favorite, winning nine of those 11 games outright. 

Brooklyn comes into this game 20th in net rating and 17th in defensive rating, and it’s expected to hang within six points of the No. 2 defense in the league? If the Cavs play Evan Mobley or Darius Garland on the second night of a B2B (they are not on the injury report), I think the Cavs roll. 

Chicago Bulls -6 (-112) vs. Memphis Grizzlies

This is a great matchup for the Chicago Bulls, who are facing a depleted Memphis team due to injuries (and trades – Memphis moved Xavier Tillman and David Roddy in the last 24 hours) on Thursday. 

Chicago is an impressive 5-2 ATS as a road favorite in the 2023-24 season, while the Grizzlies are just 6-9 ATS and 2-13 straight up as home underdogs. 

Jaren Jackson Jr. may return in this game, but I’m not sure he’s enough to swing this game in Memphis’ favor. After the Bulls upset the Minnesota Timberwolves in OT in their last game, I think they’re worth backing as favorites tonight. 

John Collins OVER 21.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)

This is the one player prop that I love for Thursday night. 

John Collins has cleared 21.5 points and rebounds in nine of his last 10 games, and the Utah Jazz moved Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji and Simone Fontecchio at the deadline. What does that mean? More time for Collins. 

In two games against the Suns this season, Collins put up 15 points and 14 rebounds and 15 points and 12 rebounds, smashing this total in both contests. He’s also seen his playing time increase as of late, playing 28 or more minutes in three of his last four. 

Collins should have a big game against Phoenix.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.