Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Jrue Holiday, Andrew Nembhard)

Monday night in the NBA playoffs features the first closeout game with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, as the Boston Celtics lead the Indiana Pacers 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Boston is 5-0 on the road this postseason, and it is heavily favored in Game 4 with Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) up in the air for this matchup. While the Celtics are just 3-2 against the spread in those games, it’s clear they have more talent than an Indiana team at less than full strength. 

No team in NBA history has ever erased a 3-0 series deficit, but the Pacers – who nearly won Game 3 – can at least keep their season alive with an upset win on Monday. Indiana is 9-3-1 against the spread as a home underdog, but does it still come out firing facing this massive deficit?

I’m betting two props in this game, focusing on a key guard from each team:

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 373-377-13 (-6.04 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 998-935-21 (+33.89 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Jrue Holiday OVER 25.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit
• Andrew Nembhard OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-155) – 0.5 unit

Jrue Holiday OVER 25.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit

Jrue Holiday has been terrific as of late for the Boston Celtics, clearing 25.5 points, rebounds and assists in five of his last six games, even though he played through an illness in Game 3. 

Holiday is shooting the lights out over this six-game stretch – 60.3 percent from the field and 47.3 percent from 3. 

Not only that, but he’s stuffing the stat sheet, averaging 6.2 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.5 steals per game over that stretch. 

With Boston looking to wrap up this series as soon as possible, I expect another big game from Holiday on Monday night. 

Andrew Nembhard OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-155) – 0.5 unit

With Haliburton likely to miss Game 4, Andrew Nembhard should have a lead role in the offense for the second straight game.

In Game 3, Nembhard finished with 32 points on 12-of-21 shooting, making four of his seven attempts from beyond the arc. 

I like this prop for Nembhard since there’s a chance Hali does play, and I still think the Pacers guard would be in line to clear this number.

Nembhard has made multiple shots from deep in four of his last six games, attempting four or more 3-pointers in four of those contests. He’s worth a shot – especially if he’s the No. 2 scoring option like he was in Game 3 – at this number.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.