Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Expert Predictions, Picks for Kevin Durant, Ja Morant)

Welcome to the final Peter's Points of 2023!

The NBA has treated us with a solid slate on New Year's Eve, including a Memphis Grizzlies-Sacramento Kings matchup with two of the best young guards in the NBA going head-to-head.

Plus, we'll get a look at the Phoenix Suns' Big 3 against a stingy Orlando Magic team that has exceeded expectations to this point.

I have player props to bet in both of those games, as well as two more picks to round out the year. With a positive day, we'd be back into plus money for the 2023-24 season.

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NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2023-24 season record: 115-99-6 (-0.20 units)
• Overall record (last 2+ seasons): 740-657-15 (+39.74 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Kevin Durant OVER 32.5 Points and Assists (-130)
• Devin Vassell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)
• Ja Morant UNDER 6.5 Rebounds (-135)
• Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 (-108) vs. Brooklyn Nets

Kevin Durant OVER 32.5 Points and Assists (-130)

Can Kevin Durant reach another level – this time as a playmaker?

Over the last two games, Durant has taken on a huge playmaking role for Phoenix, posting 16 and 11 assists in those matchups. 

While it is foolish to expect that again when he takes on Orlando, I do love Durant’s assists and points prop in this matchup. 

KD is averaging 29.8 points per game, yet his prop has been knocked down to 25.5 after he scored just 21 in the last game for Phoenix with Bradley Beal back. Even with Beal returning, I don’t see Durant’s usage taking a massive hit, especially if the Suns ease Beal back into the lineup. 

On the season, Durant has OVER 32.5 points and assists in 19 of his 27 games. He’s averaging 6.1 dimes per game, so it’s not out of the question that he pushes five or more against Orlando. 

Devin Vassell OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)

One of my favorite San Antonio Spurs bets to take all season long has been the OVER on Devin Vassell’s 3-point prop. 

The sharpshooting wing is averaging 2.6 made shots from deep on 7.2 attempts per game, and he’s cleared 2.5 made 3s in 14 of the 26 games he’s played in this season. The key on Sunday? Volume. 

The usage for Vassell has been there. He’s taken at least six shots from beyond the arc in every game since Nov. 22, and he should get plenty of chances with Victor Wembanyama playing limited minutes since his ankle injury.  

This is a good matchup as well for Vassell. The Celtics rank just 26th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game this season. 

Ja Morant UNDER 6.5 Rebounds (-135)

This number is one of the more confusing ones that I’ve seen for Sunday’s slate. 

I’m surprised to see Morant’s rebound prop all the way up at 6.5 considering he’s yet to clear six boards in a game this season. 

While Morant certainly hits the glass a high level for a guard, I’d expect this prop to bet at 5.5 since he’s gone over it three times and under twice. At 6.5, I’ll gladly take the UNDER. 

Morant averages just 4.8 rebounds per game for his career, and he only had 15 games all last season with seven or more rebounds. 

Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 (-108) vs. Brooklyn Nets

I absolutely love the up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday against the Brooklyn Nets, who are struggling as of late. 

Here’s a look at Brooklyn’s last few games: 

• Road loss to Washington
• Home loss to Milwaukee
• Road win (by just six) vs. Detroit
• Home win against Detroit
• Home loss to Denver
• Home loss to New York
• Road loss to Utah
• Road loss to Golden State
• Road loss to Denver

The team is 6-5 against the spread as a road underdog, but it hasn’t been an inspiring stretch for the Nets. 

Meanwhile, the Thunder are an impressive 10-3 ATS as a home favorite, winning those games by an average margin of 12.8 points per game. 

OKC is 7-1 at home since Nov. 30, including six wins by nine or more points. I think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company roll against the struggling Nets tonight.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.